Among the strategic actors in the eastern Mediterranean, who had a genuine interest in stabilizing Libya ? The United States ? They are absorbed by other concerns. The Russians ? Their position remains ambiguous : a Mediterranean tense is a Mediterranean where they can act. The Turks, meanwhile, pushing their advantage to build a sphere of influence and area of interest economic – and especially to challenge the power relations of the local. They didn’t hesitate to raise his voice against France, while the two countries accusing each other of indulging “a dangerous game” in Libya. In fact, only the Europeans truly wish the stabilization and the end of a civil war that began in 2014. It is in their interests and the protection of their territory. But will they have the will ? Libya is a test case for the strategic autonomy of the european as announced.
Libya, a full-scale test to gauge the capabilities of Europe
A state of armed conflict cannot be stabilized in one of three ways : either through the total victory of one of opponents in the presence ; or by a strategic balance that is accepted by the warring parties and sanctioned by a treaty of armistice and of peace ; or, finally, by the balance of forces. In other words, a war finds its outcome in a Pax Romana, where one of the competitors dominates, destroys or absorbs the other ; or in such treaties as those of Westphalia, by which, in 1648, the european States have noted the inability of everyone to establish an empire ; whether it be by a balance of terror as during the cold war.
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A civil war in which the forces neutralize each other
In Libya today, the prospects for stabilization of the conflict seem as remote as at the beginning of the resumption of hostilities in 2014. In fact, none of the belligerents is able to impose and recover by its own forces, “the monopoly of legitimate violence” and the unity of the country. Libya remains more than ever divided between rival tribes and between interest groups in competition. To the East, the government said, “of Tobruk”, dominated by general Haftar, has suffered a series of defeats during the early months of 2020, despite the very active support of the united arab Emirates and of the private military company Russian Wagner ; to the West, the government said “GNA” (for Government of National Agreement) Fayez al-Sarraj is far from having won a comprehensive victory in the first half despite the support of the Turkish armed forces.
supporters of Khalifa Haftar participate in a rally in the port city of Benghazi, in eastern Libya, on July 5, 2020, to protest against the intervention of turkey in the affairs of the country. © Abdullah Doma/AFP
Fanned by outside interference, the second civil war of Libya has for the prospect of an indefinite extension of offensives and counter-offensives which are linked together since 2014. Would this not primarily because none of the regional powers in the presence do objectively has an interest in the stabilization… except the Europeans ?
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The Turkey is driven by economic objectives
The return to strategic of Turkey in the region is not a resolution of the libyan crisis. By permitting, beginning January 2020, the Turkish armed forces to deploy in Libya in support of the government of GNA, the Parliament of Turkey and president Erdogan is pursuing a strategic agenda in which the stabilization and the unity of the country are only secondary. The economic objectives are clear and enshrined in the agreement concluded with the RNG for the exploitation of oil resources of Libya.
On the strategic plan, Turkey’s interest is to pass to the defensive in Syria on the offensive in the eastern Mediterranean, in particular to provide a counterbalance to the pervasive Russian border in the north and the south. Finally, at the political level, the presidency Erdogan offers part of its population a satisfaction of national pride in a period of economic crisis and international isolation.
If the deployment of forces on land, at sea and in the air helps move the balance of power in a way rewarding for Turkey, out of the crisis, we repeat, is not the goal of Ankara. In fact, as long as the economic interests and the demonstration of strength of Turkey are preserved, a solution to the internal disputes in Libya would deprive the presidency Erdogan levers of pressure on Egypt, its age-old rival regional on Russia, but also on the european Union. It will be understood, the stabilization does not come from Ankara.
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The United States had the head elsewhere
The eyes of the u.s. authorities, too, are extremely far from the libyan theatre. Absorbed by the crisis of the Covid-19 and by the election campaign in the perspective of the presidential election of 2 November, the presidency, Trump will not have a marked interest for the end of this crisis. Distant geographically, without any real economic impact, the war in libya in addition to taken allies of Washington. Egypt is facing Turkey and the Europeans are turned on by the activism of Turkish, whose one of the benefits is to make room for Russia in this part of the world. Having to choose between its allies is the worst situation for a global military. The wait-and-see american is, therefore, both electorally inevitable, militarily preferable and strategically painless. Washington may not be concerned to stabilize the area and discard pile, therefore, on European caught between loyalty to Nato (of which Turkey is a member) and the defence of their immediate interests.
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Europe and its interests in first line
Neither Russia nor Egypt really want to the stabilisation of Libya. The first takes advantage of the instability of the region to deploy its forces in the eastern Mediterranean. As to the second, it defends its interests in its doors, but has the essential objective of the fight against the muslim brotherhood, influential in the government of Tripoli. The Europeans are the only players in the zone to have a direct interest in a resorption of the military crisis in Libya. There goes their security, and this in several respects. On the one hand, the Eu can not tolerate the influx of weapons, forces, auxiliary, and ships of war at its gates, in front of the coasts of the Greek and close to Italian waters. To the favor of the libyan conflict, foreign troops accumulate at the boundary of the european area, putting them directly in danger. On the other hand, the crisis strengthens the position of Turkey in its tense relationship with the european Union. Having on several occasions explicitly placed the Europeans under the threat of a new influx of refugees from its own territory, Turkey can now put pressure on Europe through the territory of libya. The libyan crisis, fuelled by adventurism Turkish, can escalate in every moment in a new humanitarian crisis and migration.
This is the time to talk about the strategic unity of european
today, only the Europeans can work towards the stabilization of the indefinite libyan crisis. The international law : in accordance with the resolution 2292 (2016) of the security Council of the united Nations, the european Union has in fact launched the operation Irini for the implementation of the embargo on arms destined for Libya. And their military capabilities would make it possible : the French marine, Italian or Greek are capable of stabilizing the region.
enforce an embargo strict on the weapons is a prerequisite. This would imply to make the climb power the device carrier strike operation Irini. But a diplomatic mediation direct conducted in the name of the UN is indispensable to separate the warring parties, local and regional, the need by the sending of forces of interposition. Take sides with one or the other of the belligerents would only extend still further the potential for conflict in the country.
What is it of the political and strategic unity ? In the latest tensions between Paris and Ankara, the strategic unity of the Europeans has been tested by the presidency to Erdogan. For the moment, this cohesion remains, in part, to build. It is time that the leaders of the EU demonstrate that the strategic autonomy of the european is not a vain formula, and do what is necessary to stabilize Libya and, in so doing, secure their borders.
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* Cyrille Bret is géopoliticien, Sciences Po – USPC.
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