From the point of view of the WTO, world trade will grow surprisingly faster than expected this year, despite numerous shocks – but in the coming year it will probably be slowed down significantly. The World Trade Organization (WTO) now expects the volume of goods trade to grow by 3.5 percent in 2022, as it reported in Geneva on Wednesday.
In her forecast in April, she assumed only 3.0 percent. In the coming year, however, the skid marks of the shock waves from war, pandemic and climate change are likely to be all the more evident: for 2023, the WTO drastically lowered its forecast from 3.4 to 1.0 percent.
Import demand is falling in the larger economies for a variety of reasons. The WTO names the high energy prices in Europe, the rise in interest rates in the USA and the production interruptions due to the corona lockdowns in China. However, the WTO warns governments against putting up trade barriers. A withdrawal from global supply chains increases inflationary pressures, limits economic growth and reduces living standards.
WTO trade forecasts in general
