According to estimates by the World Bank, the sharp rise in energy prices will decline somewhat in the coming years. “After an expected 60 percent rise in 2022, energy prices are forecast to fall by 10 percent in 2023 and a further 12 percent in 2024,” said a commodity markets report released Wednesday.
Key factors included slower global growth, weaker demand for natural gas as households and industry reduced consumption, and increased coal supply. Still, prices would be more than 50 percent above their five-year average by 2024, according to the World Bank.
Coal production is forecast to increase significantly as several major exporters ramp up production. This jeopardizes climate protection goals. The World Bank sees a possible long-term change in the industrial models in the northern European countries due to persistently high energy prices. This could accelerate the energy transition. But that is by no means the case worldwide. “Meeting climate change goals requires a global reduction in carbon intensity, not just a shift in activity between countries.”
