In the fight against climate change, Germany and the EU want to quickly expand wind power. But doubts arise in the wind industry as to whether the ambitious expansion goals can even be achieved. “The wind industry is still largely viewed optimistically,” says the twelfth trend index from WindEnergy Hamburg, the world’s leading trade fair for wind energy.
But for the first time, the market research institute also asked market participants about the consequences of a lack of resources. “The results are clear: the general concerns about whether the expansion goals can be achieved” are also reflected in the trend index. “The majority of those surveyed see a strong to very strong hindrance to the expansion goals due to the global lack of resources.” The bottom line is that the industry barometer sees a “low probability of realization of the expansion goals”.
High raw material prices and inflation
Industry representatives have been complaining about high raw material prices and inflation for a long time. In addition, the wind industry will be looking for tens of thousands of new workers in Germany alone in the coming years, after a number of jobs were cut during the industry’s drought years last decade. However, given the widespread shortage of skilled workers throughout the economy, recruiting staff is difficult. Another obstacle is the lengthy approval process for wind turbines and wind farms.
In view of the climate and energy crisis, global assessments in the wind industry “continue to be quite positive, the mood is predominantly good, both on and offshore,” says the industry barometer. “However, weaker negative changes can currently be seen, particularly in Germany and Europe, both in the short term and in the long term.” However, the mood is not negative “for any industry, time horizon or region”.
Savings potential is decreasing
According to the information, more than 500 market players took part in the survey between mid-September and mid-October. The market research institute considers it surprising that the savings potential, for example through increasing turbine sizes, is for the first time estimated to be significantly worse, especially for offshore wind power. “The costs or the cost pressure for the manufacturers can play a role here, as can the question of the extent to which the technology can still be further developed or will be further developed.” While the average installed turbine size on land expected for 2030 continues to rise (from 8.2 to 8.5 MW), it will fall from 18.8 to 18 MW at sea.
