Energy consultants expect that the delivery bottleneck for heat pumps will ease in the medium term and prices will fall – despite the federal government’s plans to replace the heating system. “The market for heat pumps is currently a seller’s market with sometimes high price surcharges, but now all manufacturers are getting involved,” said Jürgen Leppig, Federal Chairman of the Energy Consultants Association GIH, the German Press Agency.
“Therefore, in two years there will be oversupply and prices will fall.” There is also enough funding for heat pumps. The existing subsidy for heat pumps is sufficient at up to 40 percent of the purchase price. “Currently, the state is promoting heating more than the building envelope.”
The production of heat pumps has increased significantly in Germany. According to the Federal Statistical Office, almost 243,200 heat pumps were manufactured in the first three quarters of 2022, almost 50 percent more than a year earlier. Due to the high demand, there are delivery problems.
Leppig sees the federal government’s plans to install more climate-friendly heating systems as the right step, but still sees hurdles such as a lack of staff and skills among heating engineers. “Many heating engineers are fully booked for months.” Leppig believes that the staff shortages in the trades should ease. “Since new residential construction has collapsed, capacities are currently being created.”
Amount of aid still open
A sticking point in the plans will be funding for people with low incomes, said Leppig. “People are calling and asking, what do I do with my poorly constructed 1950’s house?” The need for advice from energy consultants is huge. “We have never had so many inquiries,” said Leppig. There’s a lot of uncertainty.”
From 2024, every newly installed heating system should be operated with 65 percent renewable energy. Then, for example, heat pumps, solar thermal systems or hybrid systems consisting of heat pumps and gas heating have to be installed. Existing oil and gas heaters can continue to be operated, broken heaters can be repaired. If this is not possible, transitional periods should facilitate the exchange. The law means an end to installments for conventional oil and gas heating in this country. The exchange is to be funded by the state – but the amount of the aid is still open.
Leppig welcomed the technology-open approach of allowing hybrid systems or solar thermal systems in addition to heat pumps. In practice, however, the heat pump will dominate. Leppig advises owners not to install a new gas or oil heating system before the end of the year. “With the rising CO2 price of fossil fuels, it’s not worth it.”
