Against the background of Western sanctions, the Russian government has raised its economic forecasts for the current year. “The Russian economy is actively developing within the framework of the new growth model,” the daily newspaper Kommersant quoted Russian President Vladimir Putin as saying at a government meeting the previous day. Although he did not give any figures, Economics Minister Maxim Reshetnikov had previously said that he expected the economy to grow by more than 0.1 to 0.2 percent. The official forecast so far was for a GDP minus of 0.8 percent.
Putin justified the optimism with rising sales figures in retail and the higher utilization of the railways in April, which suggested an economic recovery. At the same time, the head of the Kremlin was optimistic that oil prices would rise again in the second quarter and that Russia’s export earnings would increase as a result. In fact, the price of crude oil has recently risen significantly following OPEC’s announcement that it intends to reduce production from mid-May.
The western industrialized countries have imposed a price cap on Russian crude oil and oil products in order to make it more difficult for Moscow to finance its war of aggression against Ukraine. However, at the same time China and India have significantly increased their oil purchases in Russia. Despite this, Russia earned much less from its oil exports in the first three months than it did a year earlier, resulting in a budget deficit worth billions.
After the start of its war, Russia’s government withheld part of its economic data. It is unclear on what basis it calculates gross domestic product (GDP). Several sectors complain about problems. The armaments industry, on the other hand, has been working at full speed for months.
In addition to the Russian leadership, the IMF has also raised its forecasts for Russia in the current year. Instead of 0.3 percent growth, the experts are now expecting an increase in GDP of 0.7 percent, as announced on Tuesday at the joint spring conference with the World Bank. At the same time, however, the forecast for the next year was cut from plus 2.1 to plus 1.3 percent.
