According to the Federal Reserve Bank, the US economy is heading for difficult times due to high prices and a lack of workers in many areas. The prospects for the economy are weak and are likely to deteriorate further in the coming year, according to the economic report of the US Federal Reserve (Beige Book).
However, there is at least some hope when looking at the still very high inflation rate. There are signs that the increase is slowing down. All in all, the statements in the report did not deliver any major surprises, but rather reflected the most recently published data and statements from leading monetary authorities.
There were no major movements on the stock and currency markets. The leading US index, the Dow Jones Industrial, initially rose slightly, but ended with a gain of 1.4 percent, practically at the level it was at before the economic report was published.
The bottom line is that the dollar hardly moved against the euro either, even though the euro exchange rate rose above so-called parity again and thus cost more than one dollar again. The bonds hardly react either.
The Federal Reserve has been fighting high inflation for a long time. In July, annual inflation eased somewhat to 8.5 percent, after rising to a more than 40-year high of 9.1 percent in June. August data is due Tuesday next week (September 13). Experts surveyed by Bloomberg expect an increase of 8.1 percent.
The Federal Reserve’s economic report does not reflect the perception of the Fed, but represents the perspective of important contacts, for example from large companies. The current economic report was written by the regional central bank of San Francisco. It describes the economic situation in the United States from the beginning of July to the end of August.
The Beige Book is published eight times a year, two weeks before the next Fed FOMC meeting, where interest rate policy is decided. At the meeting in two weeks, a further increase in key interest rates by half a percentage point to 2.75 to 3.00 percent is expected, after the US Federal Reserve had even increased them by 0.75 percentage points in each of the past two meetings. At the beginning of March, the range for the key interest rate was 0 to 0.25 percent before the US Federal Reserve initiated the interest rate turnaround. Due to the recent sharp rise in prices, the course has recently been massively tightened.
