Many industries are already complaining about a shortage of skilled workers. But the problem will intensify significantly in the coming years, according to a study by the employer-related Institute of German Economics (IW) in Cologne. Accordingly, there is a threat of two parallel developments up to 2026: Existing skills gaps will increase – and the skills shortage will spread to other professions.

IW economist Alexander Burstedde has analyzed how the labor market situation is developing for a total of 1,300 professional categories. According to the study, 557 of them will be among the bottleneck occupations in 2026, in which the demand exceeds the number of available workers. According to the IW, there were only 408 bottleneck occupations in 2021. “The shortage of skilled workers is spreading to other professions,” says the study.

In addition, the gap in skilled workers will increase significantly in 255 of the 1,300 occupations in the period from 2021 to 2026. However, it will only decrease significantly in eight occupations. In some cases, the shortage is even greater, although more people are working in the profession – because the demand is increasing even more.

According to IW calculations, there could be around 152,000 more educators nationwide in 2026 than in 2021. Nevertheless, there would still be a shortage of around 23,000 staff in childcare and education – and thus significantly more than in 2021. There are also around 20,000 missing social workers and social workers. Here, too, the gap is widening noticeably. The situation is also coming to a head in nursing: According to the IW, there will be a shortage of around 20,000 geriatric nurses and more than 19,000 nurses by 2026 (see table below).

And that’s just the computational gap. The skilled worker gap is defined in the IW study as the number of vacancies minus the suitably qualified unemployed, with current trends in immigration, age structure and occupational distribution being extrapolated. IW author Burstedde himself speaks of a simple model that, for example, does not take into account the extent to which qualified workers and employers actually come together.

Studies that determine the need for skilled workers in other ways sometimes come up with even larger gaps: According to a study by the Böckler Foundation, for example, up to 50,000 full-time employees are already missing in intensive care in hospitals alone.

The developments that the IW report shows are therefore more meaningful than the exact absolute figures. According to the study, there will be an increasing shortage of skilled workers, especially in many technical and manual trades. Despite the increasing number of employees, there will also be a growing shortage of skilled workers for software developers. The same applies to sales occupations: in 2021 there was no shortage of skilled workers for salespeople and cashiers, and by 2026 sales occupations will jump to the top of the bottleneck occupations ranking.

But there is also the opposite case: that the number of skilled workers in a profession is declining without there being a large shortage of skilled workers. According to the study, the number of trained bank clerks will fall by 74,000 by 2026, which is not a problem, however, since the need for classic bank clerks will also decrease.

profession

Skilled labor gap 2026

Increase since 2021

sale

26,192

26,192

child care and education

22,941

6851

Social work, social pedagogy

20,268

4813

elderly care

19,840

2101

Health and nursing

19,167

3423

building electrics

16,341

1581

computer science

15,052

4645

Sanitary, heating, air conditioning technology

14,248

1272

Medical: r Specialist: r

13,587

6387

Construction planning, construction supervision

11,578

3754

physical therapy

11,099

1253

Kraftfahrzeugtechnik

10,638

3448

Electrical operating technology

10,501

8484

Professional drivers (goods transport/trucks)

9351

5282

Dental assistant:r

8978

3153

Wood, furniture, interior design

8948

3184

Electrical engineering

8750

2177

Lagerwirtschaft

8588

8588

tax advice

8286

2388

accounting

8213

5404

Maurerhandwerk

8151

6426

Gardening, landscaping, sports field construction

8086

4141

software development

6921

2380

Painter, varnisher

6920

6920

metal construction

6856

2875

mechatronics

6110

1053

Mechanical engineering, industrial engineering

6087

2951

roofer

6077

3235

Supervision of construction planning, construction supervision, architecture

5989

2424

Sale of meat products

5957

1899

Source: IW Cologne

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