The Spanish economy faces the coming year with more uncertainties than certainties. We have left behind the worst effects of the crisis, but our society maintains a climate of anxiety that has led to the last quarter of 2019 will be inaugurated with the bad feeling of an impending recession. Fortunately, the economic results of the same seem to confirm the slowdown, but the indicators developed show that, at least in terms of the global economy and the european one, the worst may be behind us, and the year 2020 will be a year of some recovery. Some, but limited: the forecasts maintain economic growth to be very weak and with strong vulnerabilities, in a context of technological change, ageing and low productivity, which without doubt will not be a breeding ground conducive to overcome an economy that maintains strong imbalances in terms of debt and unemployment. Urges therefore put in place a reform agenda that allows a glimpse of a more competitive economy, more cohesive and more sustainable.
The reforms that we need to tackle are already so mature that they run the risk of rot. The window of opportunity is still open and you have to set priorities. In the first place, it is necessary to undertake a serious reform to improve the productivity of our economy. To retrieve posts in the performance of the national system of research and innovation, stagnated in respect of our european partners since the beginning of the decade, but also to invest in human capital and in intangible business, such as capital management, the reputation or the sophistication of our signatures. According to the report 2019 of the Valencian Institute of Economic Research and the Cotec Foundation, Spain has accelerated its investment in intangible assets, but is still far from the benchmark countries.
But the investment is not everything: the complexity and dysfunction of our multiple regulations must give way to a more conducive environment for business growth, improving competition in the markets, streamlining and simplifying regulations obsolete or protect consumers, or protect the workers, nor preserve the integrity of the markets.
In the second place, we must confront the challenge of the creation of quality employment and reduction of inequalities. It is particularly alarming the situation of the youngest, according to the Bank of Spain lost up to 24% of income between 2010 and 2017. The result is that today the population group with the highest rate of poverty is located between 16 and 29 years, with 28%, a figure which is reduced to 15.6% when we speak of the age of 65 years.
The third big challenge is to improve the soundness of our public accounts. Spain maintains a high public debt, and a structural deficit too bulky, with revenues six points below the European Union average, and about growing demands on social spending and health care linked to the ageing of the population, with the threat of the sustainability of pensions, always on top of the table.
finally, Spain must accelerate the transition towards a low-carbon economy. Spain issued in 2018, a 12% more greenhouse gases than in 1990. Recalling that the emission reduction target for the European Union for the year 2030 [40% less than in 1990] to establish a path to Spain leads to a reduction of 10% per year between 2020 and 2030.
These are the keys that should direct the economic policy of the coming years. And we must do so with a complex situation in terms of funding and structuring the territorial, a demographic that is aging and a political climate not conducive to large agreements. The good news is that the wind institutional blows in favour: the new European Commission has made clear its strategy of sustainable growth targeting the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations, and the International Monetary Fund as the OECD are promoting a more comprehensive and inclusive economic growth. We live in an ideal time to raise an economic policy that is ambitious and bold, which look to the next decade proactively.
In this way, the year that we opened will be the decisive years.
José Moisés Martín is an economist and consultant.
