The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airef) estimates that the package of anti-crisis measures approved last Saturday by the Government in an extraordinary Council of Ministers that extends the existing measures and incorporates new ones until December 31 to deal with the high Inflation will have an impact of five tenths on the public deficit forecast, while the good evolution of tax collection will have a positive effect that will reduce it.
This was indicated by the president of Airef, Cristina Herrero, during her appearance at the Finance Commission of the Congress of Deputies to report on the Report on the Update of the 2022-2025 Stability Program, which Airef considers “feasible”, since that, as Herrero herself pointed out, the differences between the macroeconomic scenario of the Government and that of Airef “are very small.”
In reference to the budget aspect, Herrero recalled that the Airef deficit forecast for 2022 is 4.2%, below the 5% forecast by the Government, and pointed out that the package of measures approved last Saturday, whose cost the Airef figure at 7,000 million euros (a reduction compared to the 9,000 million provided by the Government), will mean an upward revision of half a percentage point. In this way, the measures to alleviate the effects of the energy crisis represent a total increase in the deficit of 1% of GDP in 2022.
From the institution they have also warned of the high level of indebtedness in Spain, for which they have urged the Government to establish a medium-term fiscal strategy to reduce this vulnerability in the face of possible adversities. Likewise, the Airef has recommended to the Government that it allocate the income that materializes above what is expected and those of a temporary nature to accelerate the reduction of the structural deficit, as well as “avoid increases in spending or reductions in income of a structural nature that do not count with structural financing too»
