The Spanish Stock market gained in 2019 11.8% compared to the loss of 15% from 2018. It has been a good exercise for the shares by the increase of 25 values of the Ibex 35. Have highlighted the strong rises in Cellnex and Ferrovial, which contrast with the crashes of Ence and Bankia. A year subject to the progress of the war, U.s. trade with China, the negotiations of Brexit and the deceleration in the growth of economies.
For this 2020 that just brand, the experts suggest that you start an exercise marked more by the doubts that affect the economy in key internal, such as a possible rise in taxes in Spain or the implementation of the called Tobin tax on financial transactions, which includes the purchase of shares. Also the lower growth of the economy leads to analysts to be very cautious. The most optimistic point to a rise of 10% in the Ibex 35 until the end of the year, but most see the market behave in a neutral, close to the 10,000 points in the selective. Like most of the us markets in spite of being at historical highs, as well as the index EuroStoxx 50 which collects the large european company.
This does not mean that there are no shopping opportunities in the Spanish market. Securities that are undervalued or show good prospects for your business that are not reflected in their prices. The real estate company Merlin Properties, the pharmaceutical Almirall, Repsol, Santander, Caixabank, Cellnex or Ferrovial are among the values most frequently cited by analysts for 2020.
From the analysis department of Bankinter bet on renewables, Iberdrola and Acciona, as the sharp fall in the cost of installation of wind and solar become more competitive this type of technologies. Inside of the concession companies like Ferrovial and Cellnex with a global exposure and “who could be benefited by the plans of the stimuli and the entry of 5G”. Merlin Properties is your choice for real estate, because they do not expect that removing the regime of the socimis, which is very attractive. In pharmaceutical, its commitment for 2020 is to Almirall “by the results of their repositioning towards dermatology, the probability of exceeding the expectations and the adjustment of the price following the recent placement of a 10% of the capital.” Its portfolio of Spanish is completed with Amadeus, which along with other technological “trading at multiples that may seem high, but if we see seasonally adjusted growth are not so”, they explain.
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Despite being a sector villified in Bag and has been re-spliced in 2019 a bad result, analysts at Banco Sabadell include it among their preferences for this year three banking on values: Caixabank, Banco Santander and Unicaja. In Caixabank highlight that “the risk reduction corresponding to mrti has been a support in the value, that from the lows of August has gone up by 30%. Despite this, however, is traded with a discount to its valuation is fundamental that we see in 3,26€”. Santander give you a target price of 4.7 euros because, even though the third quarter results showed weakness in Spain and the United Kingdom, did not prevent net profit operating appellant reached maximum levels not observed since the past eight quarters. In Unicaja secure a potential rise of 32% and also see potential for 2020 in Iberdrola (17%) due to its bet on renewable and Merlin Properties (23%). Repsol has for them a potential of 37%, as it trades below the sector average forecasts very conservative that will improve throughout the year. Finally opt for Sacyr, because “the market is infravalorando the concessions division [represents 67% of the value of company] where we can see a good evolution of results for improvement of traffic and because they are entering new assets”. The only negative point is its high debt, they conclude.
The founder and director of analysis for the fund manager Augustus Capital, Juan Uguet of Resayre, based your portfolio Spanish in three values: Global Dominion, Merlin Properties, and Realia. Global Dominion highlights exposure to growing business with an excellent management team. The company continues to grow at over 7% per annum of organic form in addition to the acquisitions done every year. As to Merlin, indicating the low risk for the quality of its real estate assets. The company will be able to continue to generate value for the asset rotation and the new developments in which it participates (offices and logistics). Your participation in the project Castellana Norte and the high dividend yield (4%) are other arguments for the purchase. Finally, there is the real estate company Realia, whose main shareholders are Inmobiliaria Carso (businessman Carlos Slim) which has a share close to 74% and the fund activist british Polygon around 14%. Their low circulation of shares causes a limited follow-up of the investors and analysts, and however the value of the assets posted by the company is around € 1.40 per share compared to the 0.90 to the publicly-traded company.
Other options
At another firm expert on the Stock market, Renta 4, give a potential rise of 40% to Liberbank for its worst performance in a Bag in 2019, the reduction of costs and new efficiency plans, the stability of the margin and the possibility of corporate operations that allow the surface value, with a reduced exposure to mortgages corresponding to mrti. In ACS its upload capacity is 25%, supported in their portfolio at historic highs and with risk to the downside, some reasonable margins and high cash generation along with an excellent geographic exposure. In More Mobile see potential of 62% strong growth of mobile lines and fiber compared to the stability of the competition and the agreement with Orange allows you to complete your expansion plan ahead of time, optimizing investments. Almiral and Cie Automotive are some of their bets.
finally, analysts at Credit Suisse recommend infraponderar the european pharmaceutical sector, and sobreponderar the beverage industry, the european banks and the mining. Santander, CaixaBank, IAG and Repsol are your favorite settings for this 2020 on the Spanish Stock exchange.
Mergers
The past year has been lousy for the outputs to Bag. Only Grenergy spent on the Alternative Stock Market (MAB) to the Continuous Market without them to get to know other premieres. Not the same thing has happened with the capital risk, which is moving non-stop in search of opportunities. Either by buying whole companies as different divisions. This year it has highlighted the offer to purchase the Stock exchange switzerland Six on Spanish stock Exchanges and Markets (BME), where it is still not ruled out the arrival of new buyers.
On other movements, the director of analysis of the time of Augustus Capital, Juan Uguet does not rule out that Inmobiliaria Carso (Slim), owner of the 74% of Realia you done with the total of the company.
