The election management emphasized that an increased proportion of postal voters is to be expected in this year’s vote. According to the official final results, in 2018 voter turnout was 67.3 percent.
In Hesse, almost 4.3 million voters will be called upon to decide on the composition of the state parliament on Sunday until the polling stations close at 6 p.m. In the polls, Prime Minister Boris Rhein’s CDU recently led well ahead of the SPD led by top candidate and Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser and the Greens led by top candidate and Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Al-Wazir.
Values between 31 and 32 percent were measured for the CDU. The SPD and the Greens followed with 16 to 17 percent each. 15 to 16 percent were given for the AfD. The FDP has to worry about its re-entry into the state parliament at five to six percent, while the Left is threatened with failure at three to four percent, failing to meet the five percent hurdle. The Free Voters could achieve a surprise success – polls recently saw them at four to five percent.
A coalition of the CDU and the Greens has governed Hesse for ten years. According to the polls, both parties could continue their alliance. In addition, a grand coalition of CDU and SPD would be mathematically possible. It might just not be enough for a traffic light coalition made up of the SPD, Greens and FDP. Prime Minister Rhein held back from making any statements about the coalition issue during the election campaign.
Compared to its 27.0 percent in the 2018 state election, the CDU could make significant gains on Sunday. The SPD, which achieved its worst result ever five years ago with 19.8 percent – and only a few votes ahead of the Greens – is in danger of slipping further.
The Greens also have to expect losses, having achieved a record result of 19.8 percent in 2018. The FDP and the Left are also threatened with losses, which recently achieved 7.5 and 6.3 percent respectively. Compared to 2018, the AfD could exceed its 13.1 percent in 2018. The Free Voters could also improve their previous result of 3.0 percent.
