Rocio Monasterio and Pablo Iglesias were principally responsible for tensions in Madrid’s election campaign. A CIS survey was conducted on the eve before the vote and revealed that 40% of respondents believed that the former leader of United We Can was responsible for the tension in the political climate. 32% of respondents thought the Vox candidate was to blame.
Iglesias was blamed for the negative atmosphere in the right-leaning parties. This impression is maintained by 85 to 87% of Vox and PP voters, respectively. The impression is reversed for the left-leaning forces. 53, 66, and 59% respectively of the supporters of Unidas Podemos, Mas Madrid, and PSOE point to Monasterio. The survey confirms that 94% of the surveyed felt that campaign was stressful.
The CIS published this Thursday the study that led the opposition to Jose Felix Tezanos as president of the official population center. It was found out that Tezanos conducted surveys beyond the publication period. The PP filed a complaint to the Electoral Board, and announced a lawsuit in court regarding embezzlement of irregular financing and improper funding. This was because they understood that the survey data was meant for the PSOE. Pablo Casado complained that “it is already good” that we pay our taxes for the unsuccessful campaign of Pedro Sanchez or Angel Gabilondo. The CIS replied that it was not illegal because they weren’t going to distribute the study’s results. It was done 48 hours after the election with the title “Methodological Survey”. Elections Community of Madrid 2021>>.
Although the poll was conducted between April 27th and May 3rd, the poll did not detect Isabel Diaz Ayuso’s overwhelming victory. Neither had the CIS done this in its previous polls. In those last days, he gave the PP a direct voting intention (without any ‘kitchen’ adjustments), of 27.3%. This is 17 points less than the 44.7% it obtained last Tuesday. He also pointed out that the victory for the left forces was possible with only 34.3%, as opposed to 31.9% for the right. The truth was that Vox and PP gathered 53.8% of all the ballots, compared to 41.1% from Unidas Podemos, Mas Madrid, and PSOE.
However, the survey revealed that Monica Garcia and Inigo Errejon could surprise the Socialists. The former was attributed 12.8% of the direct intention, while the latter 13.7, which is less than one point. This study also shows the decline of the PSOE over the last stretch. It lost four tenths compared to the flash survey on April 22nd, and the upward trajectory Mas Madrid has taken in recent days.
In any case, the study confirms that electoral campaigns are useful because most citizens have already decided how they will vote. Nearly 61% of respondents had already decided which party they would support before the campaign began, 22% during the campaign, and 9% clarified their doubts in the week prior. 6.1% of respondents voted on the day.
Madrid’s campaign was particularly ineffective for PP supporters, as 79.1% of them had already declared that they would vote for Ayuso. This was before the paraphernalia and declarations started. 74% of Vox supporters knew that Monasterio was their vote. This security was lower among leftist forces. 62, 55, and 60% of supporters of the PSOE Mas Madrid, Unidos Podemos, and the PSOE were clear that they would support their party, regardless of what happened during campaign.
