The results compiled by a study that analyzes climate change in a scenario of absence of measures has warned that, among other data, the estimated direct economic losses, associated with both erosive processes and coastal flooding processes derived from climate change, they can reach 11% of the current GDP, but the most important impact, which could make up up to 75% of the estimated direct economic losses, corresponds to the effects of structural or permanent erosion on the tourist beaches of the archipelago.
If nothing is done, it is estimated that the worst climate scenario of 2050 could affect 147 tourist beaches, with a total loss of surface area of 10.6%.
The results compiled by the study are the result of an analysis of the scope and intensity associated with climate change, which constitute the components of danger that have been projected for the middle and end of the 21st century under two hypotheses of climate change, one of medium intensity (percentile 50% rise in sea level) and another of high intensity (95% percentile of rise in sea level)».
The regional deputy councilor for the Fight against Climate Change, Miguel Ángel Pérez, explained that “it is expected that the variety of probable situations that may arise in the future, derived from the multitude of scenarios of concentrations of greenhouse gases and models mean sea level rise, are included between these models, and this serves to give an orientation approximation to the range of probable situations». The results indicate an east-west pattern in the geographical distribution of coastal risk associated with climate change in the archipelago.
The territories of the eastern islands, Fuerteventura and Lanzarote, will be subject to significantly higher risks in 2050 and 2100. Taking into account all the modeled socioeconomic and ecosystem impacts, 47 stretches of coastline with high accumulated risk have been identified in the Canary Islands that must be priority object of detailed studies and climate change adaptation plans at the local level.
The study presented by the Ministry of Ecological Transition is part of the work of the project ‘PIMA (Plan to Promote the Environment) Adapta Costas Canarias’, a document that will allow the Archipelago to know, for the first time, the risks they face their coastal environments if the necessary adaptation measures are not taken in the face of climate change. The director responsible for the Area, José Antonio Valbuena, explained that “this work is part of the National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change and that its main purpose is to determine the possible socioeconomic and ecological effects on the eight islands, in the hypothetical case that the worst scenarios about this global phenomenon are confirmed.
In this sense, Valbuena recalled that the Executive has launched an ambitious legislative ecosystem in this legislature, with the Law on Climate Change and Energy Transition as the spearhead, which will soon obtain final approval by the regional Parliament. The PIMA Adapta Costas report advances that the consequences of climate inaction could range from an increase in episodic floods directly affecting the population, to damage to key infrastructure such as land transport routes, the disappearance of tourist beaches, the reduction of habitats and ecosystems and an increase in erosion throughout the coastal strip of the islands.
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