According to scientific models, a serious nuclear accident at Ukraine’s Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which is close to the front, would likely affect agriculture and nature in neighboring countries. The Austrian nuclear expert Nikolaus Müllner presented an interim report on his research in Vienna on Wednesday. His meteorological model calculations showed that an area of 20 to 30 kilometers around the Russian-occupied nuclear power plant would be so contaminated with cesium that an exclusion zone would have to be set up. It is less likely that this zone could extend as much as 200 kilometers in certain directions, he said.
The study was commissioned by the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW). Müllner also calculated the spread of increased radioactivity levels, which would not lead to restricted zones, but to restrictions in agriculture and fishing, as well as in the consumption of mushrooms and game meat. According to the researcher from the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences in Vienna, this would probably affect the Ukraine and neighboring countries such as Russia or Moldova.
With a lower probability of 1 in 100 to 3 in 100, such consequences could also occur in Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary or Romania. According to the model, this risk does not exist for Germany and other western European countries.
For his analysis, Müllner assumed that one-fifth of the radioactive material escaped from one of the six nuclear power plant reactors during battles for control of the plant. So far, he has not calculated any specific health consequences for the affected population.
The Zaporizhia nuclear power plant has been under Russian occupation since March 2022. Since then, the power plant and power lines for the cooling systems have been damaged several times in the course of the war without any radiation escaping. Kiev and Moscow blame each other for the incidents.
