It’s the return to the billboards and it’s time for candidates to put in the work: Monday marks the start of the official campaign for the June 12 and 19 legislative elections. The campaign will be between macronists expecting a win and opposition groups under the banner of purchasing power. Everybody is putting their troops into battle: LFI leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, along with the Nupes alliance to the left, will meet in Paris on Wednesday. Marine Le Pen (RN), in Henin-Beaumont(Pas-de-Calais), will meet on Sunday. Faced with soaring prices which are now the main concern, they will present their proposals.
Emmanuel Macron has been largely in the background. However, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne is going to get involved as majority leader. Monday will see her in video with all candidates Together!. Then, she will meet with the major actors of the campaign. These three blocs will face off in the April presidential election. However, they have different strategies.
Others are out to disrupt this game, such as certain socialists who were afflicted by the OPA Jean-Luc Melenchon’s New popular ecological/social union. Republicans will rely on their local roots in order to prevent a new disaster after the election of the president. Nearly 6,300 candidates are running for 577 seats. The agreement on the left has resulted in a 20% decrease in the number of candidates than in 2017. The number of male candidates is always greater than the number of female candidates (55.8% vs 44.2%). The second round will determine if the record 39% of female MPs elected in 2017 will be broken.
Multiple polls show that the Nupes and the president would be neck-and-neck in voice (26-28%), ahead the RN (21-23%), LR (9-11%), and Reconquest! Eric Zemmour (5-6%) The voting method and the geographic concentration of LFI scores would ensure that the presidential camp with its pillars LREM and MoDem, and Horizons, would maintain a majority of between 290 and 330 seats. However, this number will continue to shrink over time, just shy of the threshold of an absolute majority (289).
The Nupes would hold 160 to 195 seats and the RN 20 to 65. LR’s parliamentary group of 100 deputies would melt between 20-65 seats. The Head of State would have five years more to vote in the National Assembly if the Macronists win. He would be exposed to internal turmoil if he won narrowly. He would need to navigate with allies of circumstance if he has a relative majority, which could be with certain LRs. However, it is difficult to imagine navigating with a left dominated LFI or RN.
After the 2017 legislative elections, where less than one-third of voters moved, mobilization of voters is still a critical issue. The president camp hopes that Matignon will be witness to a woman’s presence for the first time since 1930, a signal of progress and change. The first days of the new government were marred by the rape accusations against Damien Abad, the Minister of Solidarity (ex-LR).
The current 14 ministers, Gabriel Attal, Gerald Darmanin, and others, along with several outgoing candidates, such as Jean-Michel Blanquer are preparing for this election. They will be forced to resign with a sword of Damocles if they fail. LFI and its allies hope for a ripple effect of Nupes. Jean-Luc Melenchon views himself as Prime Minister for cohabitation, carried by an electoral tide. However, he is not running for re-election.
Marine Le Pen, on the right, hopes that her formation of a parliamentary party – a first since 1986 for her party – and her 41.5% vote in the presidential final will enable her to be the first French opponent. The chances of Eric Zemmour winning even the smallest seat are slim due to a lack of agreement from the RN. The new Assembly is just being installed. It will be faced with two bills to pass to address the problems of purchasing power.
