Juanma Moreno is on track to fulfill the goal set for these Andalusian election: reach 50 seats and add more than the group on its left. Pre-election research by the Center for Sociological Research estimated that two weeks before Andalusia is appointed to the polls, the PP would win a clear victory with 35.6 percent, ten points more than the PSOE, and a distribution of between 47 and 49 seat.

The popular formations would be able to gain more votes than the leftist ones if they were placed at the top. Currently, the PP currently has 26 parliamentarians. Juanma Moreno would have to abstain from Vox in order to be re-elected as president. Ciudadanos does not disappear so it would not be possible to attain an absolute majority.


With 25 percent of votes, the CIS places PSOE in second place with an allocation of 32 to 36 seats. This is compared to its 33 currently.

Vox would move from fifth to third place by winning 15.3 percent of votes and between 17-21 seats. This formation was able to elect 12 parliamentarians in 2018.

The PSOE’s left-leaning formations would be very costly for their fragmentation. They would have between 11 and 12 parliamentarians, compared to the 17 they had three and a quarter years ago. Andalusia’s coalition which includes Izquierda Unida and Podemos, Mas Pais, and other smaller formations, would be able to get between 9-10 seats and Adelante Andalucia two.

The barometer confirms that Ciudadanos has collapsed, but not its disappearance. It would get between one and three parliamentarians from the orange party, so it could again play a significant role in governing.

Surprise would be the uniprovincial Jaen Deserves More party, which gives the possibility to enter Parliament with a deputy