What do the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris climate goals have in common? With the two agreements, the UN community of states has committed itself to protecting the climate and drastically reducing emissions in all areas. And the military is excluded from both, something the US campaigned for in the 1990s. The impact of war on the climate can only be roughly estimated so far. According to calculations by a team of Belgian researchers, as many climate-damaging emissions were released in Ukraine in the first year of the war as countries the size of Belgium produced in the same period. It is said to have been 120 million tons of CO2.
But such numbers are difficult to calculate because states are not required to publicly report military emissions. There is a clause in the Paris Climate Agreement that allows signatories to voluntarily disclose figures. But no one is obliged. For national security reasons, countries and defense companies continue to keep the data secret.
A study by three NGOs, which was available to “Spiegel”, has now calculated for the first time the influence of the global arms race on the climate. The research published by the Transnational Institute, Tipping Point North South and Center Delàs shows that NATO’s military alone produced almost 200 million tons of CO2 in 2021 – before the start of the war in Ukraine. So far this year there are expected to be 226 million tons more. The previous emissions correspond to around a third of the total German emissions in one year.
The researchers speak of an upward trend that could continue for years. Last year, NATO decided to increase its member states’ military spending to two percent of gross domestic product in the future – for more ammunition, tanks and aircraft. “If the NATO armed forces were a single country, they would be ranked 40th in the world,” the “Spiegel” quotes from the report. If all NATO members adhere to the two percent target, emissions could rise to around two billion tons of CO2 by 2028.
The researchers also criticize the German defense in the report. According to the calculations, emissions could rise from the current ten million tons to 15 million in 2028. This contradicts the climate goals to which Germany has committed itself. The figures differ from estimates that German defense is currently responsible for five million tons of CO2 per year. This does not include foreign assignments. “It is not possible to distribute greenhouse gas emissions among the individual states in a way that is fair to the causes,” said a Bundeswehr spokesman when asked by Stern last year.
According to a trend table from the Federal Environment Agency, which is available to Stern, the German military’s emissions in 2020 were 373 kilotons. However, it only contains overall calculations for fuels in military installations and military vehicles. A spokeswoman for the Federal Office for Infrastructure, Environmental Protection and Services of the Bundeswehr estimated emissions to stern at 1.45 million tons for 2019.
According to the report, Great Britain, which is one of the top five countries with the highest military investments, produces around 6.5 million tons of CO2 per year with its army – including the Ministry of Defense, foreign missions, the defense industry and arms exports.
According to the report, data from many countries is missing for the EU, which is why emissions can only be estimated. For France, the study authors estimate a CO2 equivalent of 4.56 million tons per year. France is therefore responsible for a third of European military emissions.
The European Green Deal “has completely and intentionally ignored everything that speaks to the climate impact of the military,” the researchers write. In order to actually achieve the strict goals of the deal, namely net zero emissions by 2050, military emissions must urgently be specified and taken into account.
Can at least the energy transition make wars “cleaner”? Hardly likely. Airbus told stern that the electricity for production in all plants next year should come from 100 percent renewable energy. This year, the company also tested sustainable fuels in transport aircraft and solar operation in the Zephyr unmanned flight system. Thyssenkrupp also said that the defense industry should become more climate-friendly in the future. Some of the company’s submarines are powered by fuel cells. However, diesel vehicles remain unbeatable because the fuel is available worldwide. The performance with fossil fuels is also better than with renewable energies.
The study authors are also of the opinion that the military will not be able to abandon fossil fuels in times of peace and war.
Sources: “Der Spiegel”, ZDF, Study Center Delàs, Transform Defense, Tipping Point North South, European Military Concept,
