Thermal stress, increased damage from pests, floods or hail, increased risk of fires, increased demand for irrigation, increased erosion and even a drop in quality. These are some of the effects of climate change that appear in the study “The countdown begins” developed by COAG. Conditions that already “take their toll in the field” in Spain, which each year loses 6% of the value of production, more than 550 million euros. And forecasts suggest that it will get worse in the coming decades. According to the report, in Castilla y León it is estimated that in 2050 or “before” the yields of two of the main crops, sunflower and wheat, will decrease significantly by 23% and 10%, respectively.
Granary of the country, in Castilla y León it is also predicted that temperatures could increase between 1.6 and 2 degrees in 25 years -in the last century they rose one, more than in the previous thousand years- and for each degree a 5% of losses globally, only taking into account warming and water variations without taking into account factors that multiply these phenomena, such as pests.
Not only cereals would be affected, the report also points to vineyards as another of the most affected crops. In Spain, in this case, yields are expected to fall above 20%. And a bad scenario is also predicted for the oak. The dehesa would experience a decrease in production as the ideal habitat declines and is limited to areas of the north of the peninsula.
An impact that would generate imbalances between supply and demand and increase prices, not only in Spain but worldwide. As an example, the author of the study, Pablo Riesco, exposed a current market convulsed by the war in Ukraine which, together with Russia, concentrates 5% of the production of wheat and corn – a percentage similar to the fall associated with climate change by 2030 -. “The cost of doing nothing will be much higher than that of mitigating,” concluded the technician, while from COAG they urged to be part of the solution, calling for the response to be from all sectors and global in scope or the change “will be insignificant ». In addition, they demanded an adaptation of insurance to this scenario.
For his part, the Deputy Minister of PAC and Rural Development, Pedro Medina, assured that he is “more concerned about political decisions than the climate. We can try to act against him », he pointed out. Thus, the head of the Board, who attacked the poor regulation in the Duero Basin – “the Ministry does not want to know anything about a greater capacity of the reservoirs” -, opted to “deal with the environmentalists” and manage that future uncertain at the stroke of “science and foresight” and not “ideology”.
