According to a recent study, the birth rate in Germany has fallen significantly over the past two years. According to scientists, this could be related to the various global crises, said the Federal Institute for Population Research in Wiesbaden. The birth rate fell from 1.57 children per woman in 2021 to around 1.36 in autumn 2023. This means that the so-called fertility level is lower than it has been since 2009.
The figures are based on a joint publication by the Federal Institute and Stockholm University in the specialist journal “European Journal of Population”. The basis is calculations of the monthly birth rates.
Researcher: Decline occurred unusually quickly
After the birth rate in Germany initially remained stable during the corona pandemic, according to the Federal Institute, it fell to 1.4 from January 2022 as the crisis progressed and recovered again to 1.5 children per woman in the summer of 2022. In 2023, the birth rate fell again and, according to preliminary calculations, averaged 1.36 for the months January to November.
“The observed sharp decline in fertility within two years is unusual because phases of falling birth rates have tended to occur more slowly in the past,” explained the experts. This could have various causes.
Expert: In times of crisis, many people do not realize their desire to have children
Accordingly, the abrupt collapse in numbers in January 2022 may have something to do with the vaccination campaign against the coronavirus that began nine months earlier. According to population researchers, it could be that many women postponed the desire to have children in order to get vaccinated because vaccines were not approved for pregnant women at the time.
But why did birth numbers decline from autumn 2022? “The war in Ukraine, increased inflation and advancing climate change have unsettled people in addition to the pandemic,” explained Martin Bujard from the Federal Institute, co-author of the study. “In such a time of multiple crises, many do not realize their desire to have children.” It is not yet possible to foresee to what extent the current figures initiate a general trend towards falling birth rates in Germany or only reflect a temporary effect.
The birth rate in the Federal Republic fluctuated between 1.2 to 1.4 children per woman for four decades after 1975 and was for a long time among the lowest in Europe, as the institute announced. From 2015 to 2021 it was significantly higher with values of 1.5 to 1.6.
Publication study
