The number of relatives a person has is expected to decrease by more than 40 percent in the near future. On a global scale, a 65-year-old woman now has, on average, 45 living relatives. “In 2095, a woman of the same age will have, on average, only 25 living relatives,” reported researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock. The largest decline is expected in South America and the Caribbean.
In North America and Europe, where families are already comparatively small, the changes will be less pronounced, said the head of the Inequalities in Kinship Relationships research group at the MPIDR, Diego Alburez-Gutierrez. He recently published the study together with Ivan Williams from the University of Buenos Aires and Hal Caswell from the University of Amsterdam.
“In Germany, a 65-year-old could expect to have an average of 15.8 living relatives in 2023,” said Alburez-Gutierrez. According to the projection, she will only have 15 relatives in 2050 and – statistically speaking – only 14.1 relatives in 2095. In Switzerland the numbers fall from 18.7 (2023) to 16.7 (2050) and 14.6 (2095). A total period from 1950 to 2100 was examined in five-year intervals.
Researchers see major societal challenges
The researchers evaluated historical and projected data from the 2022 edition of the United Nations World Population Prospects for their study. They documented differences in family size around the world, which they defined as the number of living great-grandparents, grandparents, parents, children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren, aunts and uncles, nieces and nephews, siblings and cousins. 1000 family relationships were analyzed for each country.
In the South America/Caribbean region in 1950, a 65-year-old woman had, on average, 56 living relatives. According to the information, in 2095 there will probably only be 18.3 relatives – a decrease of 67 percent. Due to the structural changes in families, grandparents and great-grandparents would probably be available in greater numbers in the future. While this could theoretically help ease the burden on parents when it comes to childcare, in reality these (great) grandparents could also become in need of care.
From the researchers’ perspective, the study highlights the need to invest in social support systems that ensure people’s well-being at all stages of life. Alburez-Gutierrez: “These seismic shifts in family structure will pose important societal challenges that should be considered by policymakers in the global North and South.”
