It is a historical process with immense political explosive force. For the first time ever, prosecutors are indicting an ex-President of the United States. That ex-president is Republican and current presidential candidate Donald Trump. The charges against him from New York also stand out in another way: they are related to delicate allegations against the 76-year-old. It’s about hush money payments to the porn actress Stormy Daniels.
Who is the woman and what does she have to do with Trump?
The allegations have accompanied Trump for a long time. Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, says he had sex with Trump in 2006, which he vehemently denies. According to the 44-year-old, the two met and slept together at a golf tournament weekend on Lake Tahoe in the summer of 2006 – just a few months after Trump’s wife Melania gave birth to their son Barron. Daniels claims the two stayed in touch for months afterwards. Trump dismisses all of this as “false and blackmailing allegations”.
What exactly is the charge?
Exact details are not yet known, but the indictment by Manhattan’s top prosecutor Alvin Bragg probably revolves around hush money payments to Daniels and possibly also to model Karen McDougal in the amount of $130,000 and $150,000. Trump’s lawyer Michael Cohen transferred this money shortly before the 2016 US presidential election and was then reimbursed by the Trump Organization. Trump emerged victorious from the election and moved into the White House. Prosecutors in New York accused Cohen in 2018 that the payments were improper campaign contributions because they were intended to avert harm to Trump just before the election. Trump’s attorney then pleaded guilty and went to jail.
According to the US media, the question is now whether Trump also violated campaign finance laws. As president, he had enjoyed immunity. Cohen said he acted on instructions from his then-client. Trump has publicly acknowledged the payments to Cohen, arguing it should have stopped the false allegations. If convicted, US observers speculate that Trump could face up to four years in prison – although it is unclear whether a conviction in this case would ultimately lead to a prison sentence.
What’s happening now?
After the grand jury’s jury concluded that there was sufficient evidence to show that a crime had been committed, the Manhattan district attorney should now officially file the charges – according to US media, this is expected next week. Then the public will officially learn the details of the legal allegations for the first time.
Trump would have to travel to New York for this, would be briefly detained so that fingerprints and police photos could be taken of him. The accused are often handcuffed – it is unclear whether this will happen in Trump’s case. It is considered certain that Trump will then be able to return home.
After that, a trial seems likely. If Trump were to plead “not guilty” – which is considered certain – a judge would next have to set a date for the trial to begin. Before that, there are hearings where Trump’s defense attorneys could try to get a delay or stall the process.
Is a conviction likely?
That’s hard to predict. It would be expected that Prosecutor Bragg would not press charges in this spectacular and unprecedented case unless he was confident in his prosecution’s chances of success. Nevertheless, the approach involves risks: key witness Cohen was himself convicted of lying before the US Congress and could be portrayed as vindictive by Trump’s defense attorneys. In addition, the detection of financial fraud and corrupt behavior is considered very difficult.
How has Trump behaved so far?
Trump had already predicted his impending “arrest” and called on his supporters to resist — behavior that reminded many of Trump’s rhetoric before the January 6, 2021, storming of the Capitol. Now he spoke of “political persecution and electoral interference at the highest level in history”.
In New York, security around the courthouse in Manhattan has been tightened. Trump’s environment had assured that the ex-president would appear in court if indicted. That would probably not require a sensational arrest operation.
What role does Michael Cohen play?
The case is likely to depend significantly on Cohen’s credibility because it is the direct link between Trump and the payments. For more than a decade, Cohen worked for Trump and was a central figure in several affairs involving the Republican. He was often described as Trump’s “cleaner” – until the breakup between the two came. Cohen made serious allegations against Trump in court and in Congress. The public prosecutor’s office could be doomed by a credibility problem with the key witness: Cohen is a convicted criminal himself, partly because of a false testimony before Congress.
If convicted, could Trump run for the 2024 election?
Trump had made it clear in advance that he had no intention of withdrawing his presidential bid if indicted. It could be many months or, in extreme cases, years before a potential conviction is reached. And even a guilty verdict wouldn’t legally stop Trump from running for the 2024 election. There was even a presidential candidate in US history who was not only impeached but also convicted and contested the election from prison: Eugene Debs in 1920.
Politically, however, the Trump case raises the question of whether the Republican base and party are ready to rally behind a candidate who is accused in connection with dubious hush money payments to a porn star.
Trump is polarizing the country like no other. While many of his opponents would like to see Trump behind bars, his hard core supporters, like other legal processes before them, may see the indictment as politically motivated and feel vindicated in their support for him. Trump has already shown in the past that even serious allegations and missteps do not end his political career and that he can even take advantage of them. Legally, other accusations are more dangerous.
What other legal problems does Trump have?
Several other investigations are ongoing against the Republican. Two stand out: The US Department of Justice has appointed a special investigator to investigate Trump’s handling of classified government documents. After leaving the White House, Trump kept government documents on a grand scale in his private estate Mar-a-Lago in Florida, including a number of top-class documents. Trump could have made himself liable to prosecution. Some legal experts believe that an indictment could potentially disqualify Trump from the presidency.
The special counsel is also investigating the role Trump played in efforts to influence the outcome of the 2020 presidential election – and in his supporters’ attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. Here, too, some lawyers see potential risks for Trump on his re-election ambitions: According to the constitution, anyone who took part in an uprising against the government is barred from public office.
