Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power 20 years ago with promises that gave hope to the people of Turkey: fight corruption, end mismanagement and democratize the country.
After the landslide election victory of his then new Ak party in 2002, Erdogan promised: “God willing, a new white page will be opened in Turkey.” The “ak” in the party name, meaning “pure” or “white,” was meant to stand for it. The aim is to join the EU and integrate into the world economy, and to respect the lifestyle of all citizens.
20 years later, these words sound like they are from another world. Erdogan (69) – Prime Minister since 2003 and President since 2014 – now has almost all power in his hands. Still, he seems weaker than ever. An alliance of six parties with its candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu (74) has a good chance of beating Erdogan on May 14th. The opposition and the government describe the parliamentary and presidential elections as fateful elections. Observers don’t think that’s an exaggeration. “For Turkey, the ballot box is about authoritarianism or democracy,” says Gönul Tol, director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
European of the Year and Economic Boom
If Erdogan were voted out, it would be a turning point. He is the most influential politician since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who founded the Turkish Republic 100 years ago. Erdogan’s first years in government were marked by reforms. Turkey experienced a breathtaking economic boom. The average per capita income more than tripled in the first two legislative periods of the AKP alone.
Erdogan curtailed the supremacy of the military, in 2004 he was voted “European of the Year” – a year later he began official accession negotiations with the EU. He even seemed to be able to end the decades-long bloody conflict between the Turkish state and the banned Kurdish workers’ party PKK. Well-known Turkish intellectuals such as Orhan Pamuk, winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature, and sociologist Nilüfer Göle supported Erdogan in his course at the time.
Action against dissidents and inflation
Erdogan has now rolled back many of his own reforms. EU accession talks are on hold, government opponents are in prison and much of the media is under Erdogan’s control. Erdogan ended the peace process with the PKK in 2015, and he has been criminalizing the legal pro-Kurdish party HDP ever since. Five years ago, he introduced a presidential system in a referendum that gave him far-reaching powers. Since then, important decisions have gone through the eye of a needle: Erdogan’s presidential palace.
Inflation, while slowing to around 50 percent, is still at a 20-year high. Food in particular has become expensive for Turks despite the increase in the minimum wage. According to experts, Erdogan’s unorthodox monetary policy is also to blame for the inflation, and the central bank is also considered politicized. Many young Turks are thinking of emigrating: According to a study by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation from 2021, around 73 percent of 18 to 25 year olds would like to live abroad.
Erdogan pursued a sometimes aggressive foreign policy, especially in Syria, a country where civil war was raging. In her latest book on Erdogan, expert Göl writes that he is above all a pragmatist who is concerned with maintaining power. To do this, he uses both foreign policy and the ideology that helps him stay in power. In his first two terms of office, for example, he took the path of democracy and human rights in order to neutralize the overpowering military. Later he pursued an Islamist-populist agenda, then a nationalist one. “He’s a political chameleon, constantly changing colors to survive,” Tol said.
Conflicted alliances and worries about a renegade
Erdogan forged new alliances for the election. Already in 2018 he had started in alliance with the ultra-nationalist MHP. Now he is supported by the Islamist New Welfare Party and the Kurdish Islamist Hüda Par, among others. This even caused criticism within their own ranks. The two Islamist parties want to abolish regulations to protect women against violence. Özlem Zengin, deputy leader of the AKP parliamentary group, protested against this – unsuccessfully.
The parliamentary elections, which take place at the same time as the presidential elections, are quite important. A new electoral system that would make it easier for the AKP to gain a majority could help. If the battle for the presidency is not decided in the first round, the party that has already won parliament would have a psychological advantage in a runoff.
Erdogan’s opponent Kilicdaroglu is also indirectly supported by the pro-Kurdish HDP and would therefore have a good chance of winning in the first round. However, a defector is diminishing this prospect and playing into Erdogan’s hands: Muharrem Ince, candidate of Kilicdaroglu’s CHP in the 2018 elections, is now running for his own party as a presidential candidate. He only has a few percent of the electoral potential, but he draws votes from the opposition bloc.
earthquake factor
The election campaign is expected to focus on the provinces affected by the earthquake – mostly AKP strongholds. The quake has killed tens of thousands of people in Turkey and left millions homeless. Those affected are frustrated, and many accuse the government of failing to provide earthquake relief, especially in the beginning, and of having tolerated construction defects beforehand.
Erdogan has already distributed expensive election gifts nationwide and raised the minimum wage, for example. Now he’s trying to score with the promise that only he can rebuild the earthquake region. It remains to be seen to what extent this will catch on or whether the citizens will vote for a new beginning after 20 years.
