After weeks of tension between ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his deputy Mohammed Hamdan Daglo, heavy fighting broke out in Sudan. Since Saturday, the north-east African country has been at risk of falling into chaos as a result of fighting between the armed forces and an influential paramilitary force. Who is involved in the fighting in Sudan and why?
Why are there fights?
Two major military establishments are facing each other in Sudan. The Sudanese armed forces under ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces under the leadership of his deputy Mohammed Hamdan Daglo. Tensions have been raging between the two military leaders for weeks over the planned integration of the RSF into the Sudanese army. It is probably the question of who would receive supreme command of the troops in the future that ultimately led to the violent escalation.
Who currently controls the country?
The situation was confusing on the second day after the fighting began. Both the army and the RSF reported that individual military bases had been taken. These claims could not initially be verified independently. Since the fall of long-term ruler Omar al-Bashir in 2019, the army has effectively controlled the north-east African country with around 46 million inhabitants. So far, this has worked closely with the RSF.
Who are the RSF?
The RSF formed in 2013 from a conglomerate of former militias in the western state of Darfur. There have been conflicts between the Arab-dominated government and the African ethnic minority in the region for decades. The RSF initially supported the government there and turned out to be a particularly brutal unit.
According to Human Rights Watch, the group and its leader Daglo are responsible for human rights abuses such as mass rapes. For years, the RSF worked with the military. The militia is estimated to have tens of thousands of fighters, but the armed forces can score with more heavy weapons and their air force.
What was the situation like before the violence escalated?
Under the long-term ruler Omar al-Bashir, Sudan was recently caught up in a devastating economic crisis. Food and gasoline prices rose dramatically. After mass protests by the population, al-Bashir had to resign from office in 2019 after a military coup. Actually, a two-year transition phase to democratic elections should follow. However, a civilian government headed by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, which has since been installed and controlled by the military, has not been able to stabilize the country.
Al-Burhan canceled it again in 2021. This April, the military government should have again ceded powers to civilian politicians. However, one requirement was that the RSF troops should have been integrated into the Sudanese army. The dispute had again delayed the democratization process.
Which foreign powers have influence?
Both military leaders can rely on regional allies. According to Rashid Abdi, Sudan expert at the Shahan think tank, which specializes in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia and Eritrea support Daglo, while Egypt supports al-Burhan. The background is a dispute over a dam project on the Nile in Ethiopia. Egypt is trying to prevent this together with Sudan. The wealthy Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, sees itself as a mediator.
RSF soldiers and fighters are also supporting the Saudi-led military alliance in the war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Internationally, Sudan recently came into focus following a visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The Russians are planning a naval base on the Sudanese coast on the Red Sea. This has recently led to tensions with the United States, which is concerned about its influence in the region.
Does ex-ruler Al-Bashir play a role in the conflict?
Omar al-Bashir ruled Sudan for almost 30 years. Although the military finally overthrew the long-term ruler in 2019, al-Bashir’s fall was preceded by mass democratic protests by the population. The 79-year-old was subsequently sentenced to just two years in prison by a Sudanese court for corruption. In addition, al-Bashir has to answer in court for his coup in 1989. In the worst case, he faces the death penalty.
At the same time, there are still supporters of the old ruler among the population. Islamist groups in particular see the democratization process as being imposed by the West. Most recently, death threats were made against UN special envoy Volker Perthes at a meeting that was reportedly attended by al-Bashir supporters.
How is the country doing now?
It is not yet clear which of the two factions will gain the upper hand in Sudan. “This was always the nightmare scenario,” says Alan Boswell, Sudan expert at the International Crisis Group think tank. A protracted battle between the Sudanese military and the RSF could fragment Sudan and destabilize the entire Horn of Africa region.
The international community is therefore urging a speedy end to the violence and negotiations between al-Burhan and Daglo. The potential for conflict between al-Burhan and Daglo was blindly ignored for a long time, says Sudan expert Abdi. In any case, a transition to a civilian and democratically elected government seems to have receded further into the distance due to the fighting.
