According to the Prognos Institute, electricity will remain expensive in Germany in the years to come. Despite a slight decline, the average wholesale electricity prices could therefore be higher in the next few years than in 2019/2020 before the start of the rapid rise in energy prices.
This is what the experts at the consulting institute assume in their assessment published today. The client was the Association of Bavarian Business (vbw) in Munich.
The main reason for this assumption is that gas is still required to generate electricity. Like other experts, the Prognos experts assume that gas prices will rise again after a temporary decline, partly because emissions trading with CO2 certificates is becoming more expensive.
Increasing power consumption expected
Apart from that, the institute expects electricity consumption in Germany to increase from the middle of the decade, due on the one hand to the increasing number of electric cars and heat pumps and on the other hand to the electricity requirement for the production of hydrogen.
The Institute has calculated three “price paths”: an upper, a probable and a lower. In their lower price scenario, the authors of the study only consider a lasting decline in electricity prices to be likely if Russia were to supply the rest of Europe with all the gas it had before the Ukraine war.
The Bavarian economy as client linked this with the appeal to the federal government to also implement the electricity price aid it had announced for industry: “Germany as a business location can only hold its own in international competition during the transformation with the help of an industrial electricity price,” said vbw CEO Bertram Brossardt.
