What times are these in which you are just celebrating the departure of the United Kingdom of the European Union, perhaps tired after nearly four years of failed attempts. It will not be until the end of January, but there is the feeling of celebrating these festivals with a guest less. A Europe without one of the flagships of the last five decades. It was never a simple relationship. Harold Wilson, a labour technocrat, wanted to endorse already in 1975 the membership of the EU “with the head high and without trailing on the floor.” Five years later, Thatcher would yell at a european summit in Dublin: “I Want my money back!” An uneasy relationship, but it is much more profitable than politically wanted to recognize.
The overwhelming victory of Boris Johnson in the latest elections, assures the divorce, but it remains to define how will be the relationship back. Three and a half years for the separation, and now wants to negotiate the framework of a new coexistence in 12 months. It has been self-imposed Johnson, prohibiting himself, by law, any extension of the transition period beyond 2020. There will be consequences institutional, human, economic, productive and financial. To what extent are harmful will depend on the height of a view of the parties and whether the regulation is still coordinated to both sides of the English channel. It will be difficult to negotiate if the regulatory frameworks are away. And with that has threatened the end of last week Johnson, pointing out that it does not want “to align with Brussels”.
it Is believed from London that the United Kingdom will be the object of desire of commercial and strategic large global partners. However, countries such as Japan or Canada have been reminded of your priority for the EU market of 500 million consumers. Everything that’s suppose to alter the relations with Brussels, will hinder the ability of british to find new partners. From Washington, a day jelly Johnson and the next is set new bans or tariffs on british goods. The uk does not arrive to this new environment as an empire. The EU is left with a pillar less, in a moment of poor cohesion institutional and certain anemia economical.
very Concerned that will happen with the movement of people, a framework is still not closed in the expected new customs controls and access restrictions. A serious problem for the british isles, which have covered a large part of their lack of human capital with talent from mainland Europe (and vice versa). A mismatch in labour, tourist, cultural and intellectual still not adequately calibrated. The chain of european production, on the other hand, is going to split in two unless surprise and the trade balance and external competitiveness of the parties shall be in question. Each week, also, we received the news that the City and the financial world are not prepared for a rupture, abrupt, and the extraordinary loss of market depth and liquidity could present this to the EU. That all of this is sorted out for the next christmas Eve is unlikely. The alternative is a disorder important.
