The year 2019 will be remembered for the trade war triggered by Donald Trump. World exports increased by 4% in 2018, and fell slightly in 2019. The most affected country was China, where Trump tripled their tariffs. The U.S. applied an expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, maintained the growth of domestic demand and the dollar is at its highest level of appreciation of history. The public deficit is close to 6% of GDP; the public debt, at 106%; and the fiscal pressure, a percentage point below the level of 2016 by the decrease of taxes. But Trump and the consensus of economists say that the economy is going well. It is clear that we did not learn anything from the Great Recession.
Europe is the economy is more open and more dependent on the planet and he stopped in dry. Germany is suffering from a serious industrial crisis, especially in the automotive sector, and it is structural. With a fiscal surplus, foreign surplus of 8% of GDP and all public debt at a negative rate should make an expansive fiscal policy. But Angela Merkel will be limited to a policy neutral and will reduce the surplus by the lower growth of public revenues. The new Commission speaks of a plan of sustainable investment, but we do not yet know the details. How shall the curse of european too slow and too little?
Spain was delayed, but in the third quarter, employment stagnated, as in the eurozone. In that quarter, according to data from the Tax Agency, the consumption fell slightly and investment business declined with strength: a 6% annualized. Last summer the ghost of the recession returned to fly over the Spanish economy. However, the data of affiliates to the Social Security of October and November were somewhat better and the risk of recession is diluted, although it does not go away.
What to expect from 2020? The Spanish economy begins the year with little inertia and the forecast is to create around 250,000 jobs over the next year. Continues to increase the employment but far from the 600,000 that were created for two. The positive surprises would come from the investment plan committee and if the new Government acertase with the regulation of self-consumption. This would increase public and private investment in photovoltaic panels, generating thousands of new jobs. The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to increase the purchase of Spanish bonds and would types next to 0% of our public debt.
The negative surprises would come from the trade war. After China, the obsession with Trump is the external deficit of the US with Europe, especially in the automotive sector. If you increase the tariffs to the european industry, will have a negative impact on Spanish exports. Among the potential risks include possible tax increases and price controls announced. Both would have a negative impact on investment and employment. The mayor, however, would be a confrontation with Brussels, as did Matteo Salvini in Italy, or an increase of the financial instability that increases with strength in the risk premium. We’ll see.
