And that is note. Of the 86 Russian regions, only two saw no protests between April and June last. And have not been diluted. In Kotlas (Arcankangelsk) a few thousands of people came out to the street few days ago against the plan that provides for transporting the trash from Moscow to areas like yours. The russians are becoming less reluctant to mobilize. Especially for social issues: from the opposition to the construction of a cathedral in a park or a landfill, the rejection by the detention spot of a critical journalist. Situations that symbolize the problems of inequality, pollution and poverty of Russia and that fuel social discontent. Topics that in 2020 remain on the table.
Is started, in addition, a decisive year for United Russia, the party of the Government, which has been losing voters to baskets in the last few years. Their brand has become toxic. So much so, that in the recent regional elections a large part of their candidates decided to stand as independents for fear that the sign of the party were doing would be against. But with parliamentary elections key programmed for 2021, the Kremlin knows that she needs to resuscitate the game or rename it to avoid severe problems in the polls. You must ensure a majority in Parliament before 2024, the date on which Putin should leave the presidency, according to the law.
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The regional elections in September will be an important test for the strategy of United Russia. The authorities must decide whether to repeat the scenario of last year in Moscow, when they prevented the opposition candidates attend, citing various administrative violations. A move that sparked mass protests in the capital that resulted in thousands of detainees.
Also take to walking new laws to control the Internet and the new regulation that allows you to declare foreign agent to journalists or bloggers that receive money from the outside. Measures with which the Kremlin increases the pressure on any kind of opposition and critical media.
Russia will have to decide this year on its stance on two key issues: the climate crisis and male violence. In a country increasingly conservative, the Parliament will discuss whether to approve a law against domestic violence (now in the period of amendments) in order to try to combat the brutal scourge of abuse against women. Putin, despite the fact that Russia is one of the countries most affected by global warming —warms 2.5 times faster than the average of the planet— has been adopted on occasions a posture holocaust denier of the causes. A few days ago, the Kremlin published a strategy which will begin in 2020 in order to adapt its economy and the population to climate change; but above all it speaks of “use the benefits” of warmer temperatures.
Putin moves forward in its strategy to strengthen Russia as a power geopolitics of the first level. The Russian president craves the arrival of the commemorations of the 75th anniversary of the victory over the nazis in may —to which he has invited, among others, the president of the united STATES, Donald Trump— who can re-seat you, and with honors, at the table of the great. The Russian leader has reached out to his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, which gives samples of good understanding; and it seeks to restore the relationship with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, who will visit Russia next Saturday.
compliance with Russian of his part of the agreements of Minsk to end the war in the East of Ukraine, could relax the tone of relations between Moscow and Brussels, and also pave the way for a lifting of the sanctions.
however, the analysts believe that the presidential elections in the US will bring another round of punishment by Washington against Russian interests. And this will lead to new steps toward the desdolarización undertaken by Moscow, which will continue to earn their pivot to Asia —is expected to further increase trade and investment with China, the middle East and Africa. With new fronts, as the libyan war and the escalation of tension between the US and Iran, Moscow must decide on their next steps in the syrian conflict, that entered in 2015, to support its ally Bashar al-Assad.
Control arms
If the last year buried definitely the treaty of control of missiles of short-and long-range key of the Cold War (INF), this may see the end of other agreements on arms control, the New Start, which limits the number of nuclear warheads in the possession of Moscow and Washington. The covenant expires in 2021. And there are still no negotiations going on.
This will also be a pivotal year for relations between Russia and Belarus. Both countries are negotiating new terms of its agreement of union. The Kremlin seeks greater integration. And to achieve it, tap to Minsk by increasing energy prices and reducing subsidies, a cornerstone for the belarusian economy. On the 31st of December, Moscow already showed the belarusian president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, what could happen if there is no agreement to cut off the flow of oil for a few days. But for Belarus, the integration or union amplified may lead to a loss of sovereignty was intolerable for Lukashenko, who moves in a difficult position: to lose beneficial agreements russians can hit hard its economy. But the negotiations have already led to protests tolerated in a country that normally suppresses it with an iron fist any mobilization.
First exam for Zelenski, and his promises of reform
Volodímir Zelenski premiered in the presidency of Ukraine as a center of the scandal that led to the process of impeachment the president of the united STATES, Donald Trump. But 2020 will be even more key to his Government. In his first year in power, the former actor would have to prove that their promises to combat corruption are real. Also that the auguradas reforms of the institutions to increase the confidence of ukrainians in the system are performed and give the result.
But the main challenge of the president in Ukrainian is to determine to what extent it will be able to fulfil its promise of working to end the war in the East with the separatists supported by the Kremlin. You will have to decide whether to continue thawing relations with Russia and the agreements of Minsk. Your next steps will depend on you to keep their excellent levels of approval.
After the meeting last December in Paris, in which little progress was made but it was agreed a new calendar that has already been released with an important exchange of prisoners, it is expected that Zelenski meet again with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin; with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, as the main guarantors of the agreement to end the last war in Europe, which has killed already to 13,000 people, according to the UN.
