tourism has been one of the main engines of the economy after the Great Recession. In fact, for years it was one of the few good news that economic activity could take it to the mouth. Now, however, is in full stop and seems to have plateaued. And is faced with his most difficult decision: what you want to be higher. Continue to grow in volume as up to now does not seem viable, but to reposition themselves in the market to attract another type of customer is a complicated task that requires time and a defined strategy.
The model of increase in number of travellers is practically exhausted (2019 will be the seventh year by record arrivals, which already exceed 83 million), although you can get positive aspects. “In the absence of the December data, there will be been another great year for tourism in spite of the uncertainties that have marked the year as the Brexit, the economic downturn or the bankruptcy of Thomas Cook,” argues Elizabeth Oliver, State secretary of Tourism.
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But the industry hides a face less friendly. Because there exists a reasonable doubt: can fit any more tourists? The answer, with nuances, it could be summarized that there are places where it has peaked (especially in areas of sun and beach). Although yes there is room to grow width-wise. This is, in points less overcrowded and, in months with lower demand. Yes, the saturation reached in the coast will have a rebound effect that can result in a drop in the next few years.
Experts and major actors in the sector consider that the situation is not yet worrying, but you have to react to prevent the fall. And a slump in a key sector such as this would be difficult to digest by the country, especially if it comes at a time of slowdown like the current one, and with little fiscal space to carry out measures of support. The cooling of the sector is particularly felt in the arrival of tourists. In 2018 grew by 1.15%, and in 2019 the increase was 1,19% until November. If you compare with 2017, the difference is sideral: then rose 8.7%, more than 6.5 million tourists a year before. In addition, as shown by the slowdown started already recorded declines in months-key (may, July, August, September and October).
the Entry of travelers
From 2017 the growth has slowed slightly. Of an average growth of 6% per annum has been passed to a 1% per year.
79,4
77,9
80 million
60
a 50.1
40
Since 2010 grew by 58.4 per cent, some 30 million
+1,93%
20
0
2010
2017
2019
Data up to November of each year
Change of seasonality
Between 2018 and 2019 have fallen arrivals in high season, but it has been compensated up to 5.74% in months of low season.
+5,74%
+6
+4
+2
0
-2
-1,65%
E
F
M
To
M
J
J
To
S
Or
N
Months
Change source
Uk, France and Germany account for almost half of the tourists who come to Spain.
0
50
100
In 2019 have fallen by 700,000 travelers from the three countries with regard to 2018, but has been offset by countries that represent only 10.3% of those who visit us.
Increase travelers
1.102.005
united States
363.450
Decrease
-718.096
Austria
266.361
France
-139.567
Germany
-198.588
Ireland
133.104
Japan
131.112
United Kingdom
-379.941
South Korea
121.662
Mexico
103.989
Source: INE (Frontur)
THE COUNTRY
the Entry of travelers
From 2017 the growth has slowed slightly. Of an average growth of 6% per annum has been passed to a 1% per year.
79,4
77,9
80 million
60
a 50.1
40
Since 2010 grew by 58.4 per cent, some 30 million
+1,93%
20
0
2010
2017
2019
Data up to November of each year
Change of seasonality
Between 2018 and 2019 have fallen arrivals in high season, but it has been compensated up to 5.74% in months of low season.
+5,74%
+6
+4
+2
0
-2
-1,65%
E
F
M
To
M
J
J
To
S
Or
N
Months
Change source
United Kingdom, France and Germany account for almost half of the tourists who come to Spain.
0
50
100
In 2019 have fallen by 700,000 travelers from the three countries with regard to 2018, but has been offset by countries that represent only 10.3% of those who visit us.
Increase travelers
1.102.005
united States
363.450
Decrease
-718.096
Austria
266.361
France
-139.567
Germany
-198.588
Ireland
133.104
Japan
131.112
United Kingdom
-379.941
South Korea
121.662
Mexico
103.989
Source: INE (Frontur)
THE COUNTRY
the Entry of travelers
79,4
77,9
80 million
From 2017 the growth has slowed slightly. Of an average growth of 6% per annum has been passed to a 1% per year.
60
a 50.1
40
Since 2010 grew by 58.4 per cent, some 30 million
+1,93%
20
0
2010
2017
2019
Data up to November of each year
Change of seasonality
+5,74%
+6
Between 2018 and 2019 have fallen arrivals in high season, but it has been compensated up to 5.74% in months of low season.
+4
+2
0
-2
-1,65%
E
F
M
To
M
J
J
To
S
Or
N
Months
Change source
Uk, France and Germany account for almost half of the tourists who come to Spain.
0
50
100
Increase travelers
In 2019 have fallen by 700,000 travelers from the three countries with regard to 2018, but has been offset by countries that represent only 10.3% of those who visit us.
1.102.005
united States
363.450
Decrease
-718.096
Austria
266.361
France
-139.567
Germany
-198.588
Ireland
133.104
Japan
131.112
United Kingdom
-379.941
South Korea
121.662
Mexico
103.989
Source: INE (Frontur)
THE COUNTRY
Forecast for the low
if all this outside little, for the next year, the forecast is not anything praiseworthy. Ryanair, the main airline in number of passengers carried in Spain, estimated that will move a 1.5% less passengers. And the bankruptcy of Thomas Cook left in the air to more than three million tourists that travelled with the tour operator to the country and puts in check the connectivity with the Canary islands and the Balearic islands. “Will continue to be flat or even it is possible to fall arrival. Will depend on what happens with the competitor countries of the Mediterranean,” explains Juan Ignacio Pulido, professor of Applied Economics of the University of Jaén.
Here comes into play a factor that explains part of the rise in the last decade: the tourists provided. These are the visitors who chose Spain because competitors of sun and beach such as Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt collapsed because of the insecurity in the area. But these countries are already beginning to recover their share of the pie: in the last year, Spain saw how you wiped out (up to November) more than 700,000 travellers, british, German and French. Something that the industry has been compensated up to now with an increased arrival of visitors from places like the united States and asian countries, among others. “This bet will result in a greater sustainability and profitability in the sector,” argues the secretary of State.
once past the debate of the number, the experts consulted point to the spending. “It is positive that the bill to continue the record”, argues José Luis Zoreda, vice-president of Exceltur. In the expenditure registers an increase of something more vigorous (around 3% in the last two years), although also well below the 12% 2017, according to the INE. An account that does not filter what travelers spend at source. That is to say, which does not occur in Spain. To avoid this, the Bank of Spain collects data of the balance of payments the income derived from tourism. If these are divided between the number of tourists, the spending is on the increase since three years ago (834 euros in 2018, the last available data), although it is below the ratio for 2013 (850 euros per visitor).
The coast, in check by an arrival uncontrolled
the entrepreneurs of The sector have been rubbing his hands with a business on the boil. But the industry can also die of success. “Tourism should serve to improve the quality of life of the people and I think that we have forgotten,” argues professor of Applied Economics Juan Ignacio Pulido. This expert argues that the saturation is seriously affecting the basic resources. “It is a serious problem in some places where it has exceeded the carrying capacity,” he insists. Sample of them is the recent regulation in the Balearic islands against the tourism of drunkenness.
To avoid this, already begins to talk of setting limits to arrivals in certain areas. “There are certain cities and areas that already do not want more tourists because they are saturated. You can’t continue to grow in number because it generates rejection in the population”, argued leaders of the lobby tourist Exceltur.
In this context, platforms that offer flats tourism have played a decisive role, as they increase the accommodation options and contribute to occur, a sudden rise. An explosive cocktail that the areas of most demand have not been able to manage. Platforms advocate the effect redistributive than they have, something that is partly true. However, in recent years this argument began to fall by the entry into the business of professional investors.
