Almost all of in Switzerland, diagnosed Corona-patients have been infected in the North of Italy. There are only 2000 cases but overall known. How can that be?
You have to be aware that such Figures are always too low. One sees only what one can measure. And I don’t know what is the measurement of capacity in Italy. In the United States has been measured very little, and then suddenly, almost overnight, there were hundreds of cases. Of course they were all already there. In Italy it is probably similar, therefore, the actual number of cases is certainly much higher.
so Far died in Italy, more than 50 people at Covid-19. Assuming a death rate of one-half to one percent, but not in 2000, but between 5000 and 10’000 people would be infected.
you have to go out. Even if a country such as Italy could now prevent all Infections, there would be more deaths, because there are among the Infected, those that are die of it. However, it is difficult to draw from such official Figures to draw conclusions.
this Is the General rule?
Not necessarily. When you hear, as in the case of Iran, the first two deaths, then you can already make conclusions. The deceased must have been infected three to four weeks, which means that it must already be very many Infected.
Can be calculated when the epidemic in Italy began?
Basically, you can be fine, mainly thanks to genomic information of the Virus. In Italy, it has not, so far as I know, still. In the United States, however, this information is available for the outbreak in the state of Washington and from this we could conclude that the Transfer is for about six weeks on the Run, without anyone noticing.
“Singapore is a Prime example of transparency, in all cases, you can use online to view. We can learn a lot.”
In the Canton of Ticino, there were until yesterday only a case, now there are three. This seems to be rather little.
It is not possible that you still know all the contagions. In addition, you do not seems to take place in Switzerland, the Situation is still serious.
you mentioned Iran as a problem country, another one is Indonesia, which has only reported two cases.
so, what is the number of the cases relates to countries with low-to middle-income, because we are all on the world. The health systems in these countries are simply not able to measure the extent of the epidemic. We need to adjust to the fact that the Numbers will increase on all continents solid. Anything else would be a miracle.
conversely, Singapore has the epidemic gotten pretty good in the grip. What did you do there, right?
firstly, Singapore is a small, geographically insular country, where you can control everything well. Secondly, they have responded quickly. And thirdly, it communicates the government’s clear from the beginning. Singapore is a Prime example of transparency, in all cases, you can use online to view. We can learn a lot.
What is not going well for us?
Basically, we need to communicate better, this is true for all, for us scientists and the authorities. It now needs, especially Leadership, to help people to understand what lies ahead of us.
“I would not be surprise if you had until the end of the year a vaccine. Then the Situation would be next year, back to normal.”
you yourself assume a death rate of about one percent, your colleague, Christian Drosten of the University hospital Charité in Berlin speaks, however, of 0.3 to 0.7 percent.
if it turns out later that the mortality rate for a good health system, as we have it in Switzerland, is actually 0.5 percent, then I’m still so happy! The fact that doesn’t change that this is about a factor of ten worse than a flu.
do you Worry?
Yes, but even more to Worry about than the mortality in the 20 percent of the severe to critical cases prepare me. Let’s assume that ten percent of the population in Switzerland with Sars-CoV-infected 2 and five percent will develop a critical course of the disease, so that’s about 40’000 people. But we have beds less than 40’000 Hospital. If we let the epidemic is now easy without the measures go through, which leads to the collapse of the health system. Therefore, we all need to help to make the Virus’s life as difficult as possible. So, we relieve the pressure on the System and win time, we must use it to develop a vaccine or a drug. In the meantime, we have to adjust to a special year.
China has the epidemic, apparently in the grip, the Numbers of newly Infected are lower, the Peak is exceeded. Can you estimate when in Switzerland, the peak of the epidemic will be reached?
Here it is to be understood is very important that the so-called Peak in China is completely artificial. You can’t compare with the seasonal flu, which within weeks will return. The Coronavirus that is not at all the case. The observed decline is the direct consequence of the drastic measures taken by China. Once you loosen that, the Numbers back up. We will have to do similar things, if we don’t want to overload our health care system.
Can you tell what is yet to come?
most epidemiologists believe that the Virus is a long-term stay with us. Sars-CoV-2 will establish itself in the human Population, and over the next few years with us to stay. The hope is that the relatively high mortality, and many of them are not mild gradients only deal now in the first Phase. As long as there is no vaccine, one must consider that a large part of the population is infected.
A vaccine is probably the earliest in mid-2021 in view. As long as we will deal with the Virus still?
I’m a little more optimistic. I wouldn’t be surprise if you had until the end of the year a vaccine. Then the Situation would be next year, back to normal. In the next six months, we need to manage the Coronavirus but non-pharmaceutical measures. This is a challenge!
“I also have great hope that the awareness of pandemics is increasing, and to adapt accordingly the systems.”
Will receive the now measures ordered, in the autumn of upright?
Yes, until a vaccine comes out. Maybe we can slow down the dynamics, but because people now stay at home and Social Distancing make. Accordingly, the epidemic in Switzerland would then run much slower, and it needed no additional drastic measures. That would be the ideal case. But you should prepare at least psychologically, to the fact that it is an exceptional year, with fewer Meetings, less travel and more home office. That is unavoidable.
we Will have to live with Sars-CoV-2 as with the flu? Or the Virus will disappear like Sars? Sars has been systematically eradicated, because all transmission chains have been interrupted. That’s a luxury we have with Sars-CoV-2, most likely because mild cases are not infectious. It is almost conceivable that the Virus will remain for many, many years with us. Unless we find a highly efficient vaccine, such as those against measles. you may also See positive aspects of the current pandemic? Directly, I don’t see anything Positive. I had a lever, I would kill him immediately. Indirectly, but I see a lot of potential positive consequences. For one, there is a breather with regard to the greenhouse gases. Then we might kick the experience into the digital future, so that you are working more from home. In such matters, I see a potential learning process. I also have great hope that the awareness of pandemics is increasing, and to adapt accordingly the systems. We need to learn from it.
Created: 03.03.2020, 21:55 PM
