The Ifo Institute, is expected in 2020 to a drop in German economic performance of 6.6 percent. The Munich-based economy, scientists predict in their on Thursday updated economic forecast. In 2021, the economy could grow from a low level of 10.2 percent.
Thus, the Ifo researchers expect this year, with a much more serious slump than during the financial crisis in 2009. At that time, the economy’s contraction of 5.7 percent. Shortly after the start of the Corona-restrictions in March, the Economist had a glimpflic the course of the crisis more expected. Least, Ifo chief economic researcher Timo wollmershäuser and his colleagues had said at the end of April, a decline of 6.2 percent previously.
“the economy is expected to recover by the middle of next year,”
the basis of the update is the most recent company survey conducted by the Institute. The companies surveyed were, on average, a normalization to their own business situation within a period of nine months for the most likely case, said Wollmershäuser. “Following a sharp drop in the second quarter of 2020, or 12.4 percent, is expected to recover the economy by the middle of next year.”
- read also: After the Corona-billion of the interest rate shock are in danger of Exploding now, Inflation?
In a favorable scenario, the normalization could take in an average of only five months, then the economy would shrink this year by only 3.9 percent. In the worst-calculated scenario with an average normalization after a period of 16 months, the economy would break down performance this year to 9.3 percent.
forecast is only valid for the case that no second wave of Infection comes
The forecast is, however, in several respects, subject to. All three scenarios assume a gradual easing from the end of April. The new forecast was created under the assumption that the spread of the corona virus contained and no second wave of Infection comes. The Ifo economic researchers included in the calculations, in addition, a global wave of insolvencies.
Everything about the development of the Corona-crisis
Corona pandemic in the Live-Ticker
the R-value rises above critical value – 368 new HIV infections in Germany, the Economist reported dismantled SPD-man: “What are the obstacles to a better proposal?” FOCUS Online/Wochit Stelter vs. Stegner: Economist, SPD-man: disassembled “What are the obstacles to a better proposal?”
pom/dpa
