The measures to prevent the spread of Coronavirus to prevent the view of researchers, tens of millions of infections and deaths.
The large-scale Lockdown, velvet border closures, contact block and school closures have alone prevented in eleven European countries until the beginning of may possibly, about 3.1 million deaths and the monitoring of the pandemic-history, enables researchers to Seth Flaxman from Imperial College London (United Kingdom) to the analysis of the case of death, pay in the scientific magazine “Nature”.
In a second study, a team of researchers reported that the measures in the six countries examined, up to 6. April had around prevents 530 million infections. The scientists had. the course of Infection, up to this date in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the USA, analyzed, and present their results in “Nature”
“no other human has saved ever catch on in such a short space of time so many lives,” said study leader Solomon Hsiang of UC Berkeley (USA).
German experts advise cautious Interpretation of
experts in Germany advise a cautious Interpretation of the Numbers. “This is a first add-on that is also important in the political debate about future actions and their relaxations,” said the statistician Gerd Antes, University of Freiburg, in a first opinion on the study.
“Looking at the Numbers, you will see that you have a very wide range – this illustrates the uncertainties associated with such analyses.”
in Principle, it is reasonable to look for an analysis of the pandemic-history on the death figures, as the infection depend on the rates of how much a country is tested. But the Numbers of deaths brought its own difficulties, for example, because it is not always clear whether someone is or Covid-died 19.
The researchers Flaxman had for your model the collected Covid-19-death figures of the EU-health authorities ECDC, based on the course of Infection and the reproduction rate determined in retrospect. They compared the influence of the Lockdown measures up to 4. May with a scenario in which the reproductive number since the beginning of the pandemic remained unchanged. So you calculated how many deaths would have occurred in the absence of measures is likely.
all of the deaths involved possible
The approach some of the weaknesses, also, the researchers say. So the deaths may have been overlooked at the beginning of the pandemic. In addition, there is in the reporting of death cases, differences between countries and over time. Finally, there could be delays in reporting of deaths.
The researchers tried to take this into account as well as possible in your evaluation, for example, by analyzed data of several countries.
at the beginning of the pandemic, the reproduction number is the average of all countries at 3.8. Ten Infected were so in the means 38 for more people. In all the countries of the reproduction number decreased as a result of the measures taken to among 1. The result is a ceiling with investigations in individual countries.
sources
- Hsiang, S., Allen, D., Annan, Phan, S. et al. The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2404-8
- Flaxman, S., Mishra, S., Gandy, A. et al. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7
Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa)
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