on The 5th day of a historic summit, at 5: 28 in the morning, after 92 hours of conclave, the white smoke of the Vatican in brussels got away : the 27, after a thousand battles, a corridor and asides multiple, have finally agreed on a stimulus plan and a budget for the long term (2021/2027) in the face of what is shaping up as the most serious economic crisis since the second world war. But we can not say that the spirit of the founding fathers floated on Brussels, as everyone has especially thought to protect its interests.
the consent of The countries said to be frugal, the netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Denmark, has been bought kicked off their national contribution. These discounts, diabolic invention of the British who would have had to disappear with the Brexit, have not only been maintained but increased ! These dividends are therefore at the expense of all other countries, and in particular to the support of the French public having regard to the size of the GDP of the Hexagon in the wealth of europe.
390 billion euros in subsidies instead of the 500 expected
In total, there are 10 billion more over 7 years who flew in crates of the community. The Germans retain their discount (3,671 billion euros) but, them, have the decency not to demand an increase. Mark Rutte, the Dutch Prime minister, obtains an increase in its discount to 345 million euros per year, an annual discount of 1,921 billion. The Austrian Sebastian Kurz was the most virulent on the subject. He gets an annual rebate of € 565 million, an increase of 328 million euros). Sweden, with 1,069 billion euros, will see their discount grow to 246 million per year. Finally, Denmark can enjoy an annual rebate of 322 million euros, an increase of 125 million euros.
It is at this price that the broad lines of the recovery plan – a loan of 750 billion euros – could be saved by the tandem Macron-Merkel, at the maneuver end-to-end. The frugal have got to reduce the share of subsidies to 390 billion euros instead of 500 billion initially expected by the franco-German tandem. The rest – 360 billion euros – will be distributed in the form of loans. One can, however, raise doubts about the usefulness of loans from the Commission to the extent that Italy has no major problem of funding on the market…
France is expected to reach 40 billion euros in subsidies
the main tool of the recovery, which finance the national plans of investment has been preserved with approximately 312 billion of subsidies. For the member States, it was essential. France should receive a grant of close to € 40 billion, so it is about 40 % of its national plan of recovery that will be supported by european funding.
The Dutch Mark Rutte has long been clinging to the idea that the national plans, which will be submitted to the Commission from September, had to be adopted by the Council acting unanimously. The european summit has long blocked on this issue. Finally, Rutte was transferred with a technical fit-up : national plans will be ratified by a qualified majority, but one or more member States may appeal to the Council if serious problems were to appear in the execution of expenditures. Mark Rutte has a rope if he were to find that the Italians, Spaniards – and why not the French ? – had to get away from the objectives for which the european funds should be spent…
health, research and Erasmus sacrificed
Of the rest, 30 % of the funds must be invested in favour of carbon neutrality and no expenditure shall not further degrade the climate. This was not achieved, in particular on the side of the Polish.
Naturally, the amount of the grants has melted, it took the sacrifice of programs and carve in the research (Horizon programme), Erasmus or even innovation. Worse, the program of health said EU4Health – 9 billion euro – has simply disappeared ! While all of them have lamented the lack of resources of the EU in the face of the pandemic, the same self-evacuated “The Europe of health” of the european programme… What will the Europeans when a new health catastrophe point ? This is part of the collateral damage of this negotiation of a salesman…
The CAP just maintained
As for the CAP, it is exposed to the hazards of this negotiation. The background stimulus rural has been halved from 15 to 7.5 billion euros. It’s a shame because it was a budget for structural investments, important for the future… The income of peasants, meanwhile, will continue to be about except if inflation was projected to grow over the years. It has not been possible to hear to the partners of France and the common agricultural Policy was not an all night moon, but, on the contrary, a policy of sovereignty in a world which, over the decades, will run out of water, suffer an aggravation of droughts that we are already experiencing, not to mention the alarming soil erosion. The food self-sufficiency of the Old Continent is a challenge for the future. The digital, the 5G, the artificial intelligence are subjects that are crucial but they will not meet the plates.
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How to finance the large borrowing of the Commission ? Europe’s leaders to take an appointment to create the “own resources” – taxes – in the years to come : a tax on the plastic non-recyclable before the end of the year, an extension of the carbon market, aviation and maritime sector, a carbon tax at the borders before 2023, with a tax to digital before 2023, possibly a tax on financial transactions… To tell the truth, nobody knows if the EU will be able to adopt such taxes to the unanimity within the set time limit. The Germans are not very excited…
The adoption of this broad stimulus plan is now subject to two other locks. The national Parliaments must authorize, prior to the end of the year, the Commission to realize this great loan. In fine, the european Parliament will have to approve the european budget in the long term. The trading will resume no doubt, with european parliamentarians quite upset at the cuts made in the european programmes… They can’t amend the bill, but only to adopt or reject it. Few observers believe that the european Parliament can take the responsibility of throwing to the ground a scaffolding of financial if obtained with difficulty 27…
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