The findings of a study conducted by the public Health agency of France and the national Institute of health and medical research, and on the amount of screening tests performed after the containment are alarming, says The Figaro. During the weeks that followed the déconfinement, only about one in every ten patients was detected.
researchers relied on mathematical models to predict the number of real infections. “These are models that simulate the spread of the virus in the population. They allow us to know the number of infections occurred each day, taking into account the behaviour of people and the frequency of contact to the school, in homes, places of work or leisure, ” commented Vittoria Colizza, director of research at the Inserm. It specifies, however, that these models comprise the ” obvious uncertainties “.
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A detection rate on the rise since the summer
a total of 20 736 PCR tests were positive, in France, between 13 may and 28 June. Taking into account the delay between the onset of symptoms and the completion of the screening, it leads to some 7 200 infections during this period. But, according to the study, the reality is more around 69 000 symptomatic infections.
Several factors explain this shift. “Until the 25th of July, it was necessary to have a medical prescription to be able to take the test, it was a very significant barrier,” says first Vittoria Colizza. She adds : “At the time of the déconfinement, the data show that twenty days passed on average between the onset of symptoms and the completion of the test. “The researcher also discusses the public’s lack of knowledge about the symptoms of the disease. “The cough and the fever are not the only symptoms ! A number of symptoms that are compatible with the Covid-19 not to be however specific, such as stomach aches. In this case, it is necessary to get tested right away, ” she explains.
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The director of research at the Inserm, however, specifies le Figaro that the detection rate has increased significantly since the post-containment : so that it was 10 % at that time, ” at the beginning of the summer, we were able to identify one-third of cases. This evolution is the consequence of two factors : a decrease in virus circulation and a strengthening of our testing capacity, ” notes the specialist.
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