WASHINGTON — While the Biden administration believes that there is a “distinct probability” Russia could invade Ukraine prior to the Winter Olympics, which will be held on February 20, U.S. officials don’t believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet made a decision.
Jake Sullivan, White House National Security Advisor, suggested Friday that the threat of such an incursion “now immediate enough to warn Americans still living in Ukraine to flee within the next 24 to 48 hour.”
“We continue seeing signs of Russian escalation. New forces are arriving at the Ukrainian frontier. Sullivan stated that we are now in the time frame when an invasion could start at any moment should Vladimir Putin order it, as he had previously said.
He said, “I won’t comment on the details, but I want to make it clear, it could start during the Olympics, despite speculation that it would only occur after the Olympics.”
The White House announced Friday that President Joe Biden will speak with Putin Saturday morning while he is at Camp David. The last time they spoke was December 30, 2012.
Biden warned Americans in Ukraine not to stay and said in an interview on Thursday with NBC News that sending troops into Ukraine to rescue U.S citizens would lead to “world war.”
Friday’s statement by Sullivan stated that U.S. intelligence officers do not believe Putin has made a decision about whether or not to invade Ukraine. However, he did state that the U.S. intelligence officials have a “sufficient degree of concern” based on what they are seeing on ground and what our intelligence analysts have gathered that it is sending a clear message.
When asked about the possibility of Russia launching a military attack, Sullivan stated that “it is evident to us that there’s a very clear possibility that Russia will act militarily” and that there was reason to believe it could occur in a relatively short timeframe. We can’t pinpoint when or where it will happen, but we can tell that there is a possibility that Russia could launch a military operation before the Olympics end.
A U.S. official said Friday that new intelligence has been obtained about Russian military buildup. This makes officials more certain that an invasion is imminent.
According to U.S. officials, intelligence has shown that Moscow has collected about 80 per cent of the forces required for a full-scale invasion and that Russian troops are moving closer to the border. The official said that Russia had also brought Iskander missiles to augment its troop buildup. They also have a naval presence equipped with land-attack cruise missiles and other logistical support including medical.
Capitol Hill lawmakers are also raising the alarm.
When asked about Russia’s possible attack on Ukraine, Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said to NBC News that there was no indication of Putin backing down. This is not a bluff. It’s an expensive, complex, and ornate bluff. It’s not possible to access his brain. This certainly seems and feels like it is happening.”
Sullivan stated that a Russian attack against Ukraine would likely start with missile and aerial bombing attacks that could “clearly kill civilians without any regard for their nationality.” Sullivan suggested that an invasion could also include a rapid attack on Kyiv and possibly the seizing of Ukraine’s capital.
The U.S. would respond with “severe economic sanction, with similar packages imposed European Union, United Kingdom, Canada, and other countries.” It would also include changes in NATO and American-force position along the east flank of NATO. And it would include continued support for Ukraine,” Sullivan stated.
Echoing the warnings made by Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken regarding Americans in Ukraine, Sullivan stated that U.S. citizens should evacuate “as soon possible… within the next 24 to 48 hour.”
Sullivan stated that while we don’t know what will happen, the risk is high enough and the threat is immediate enough.
However, he made it clear that the U.S. does not believe that Putin has given an order yet. Sullivan stated that it could happen and may happen soon.
Biden took part in a virtual meeting on Friday morning with U.S. allies including leaders from Canada, France and Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, the United Kingdom, Poland, and Romania. The NATO secretary general, the presidents and vice-presidents of the European Commission (and European Council) were also present.
Dmytro Kuleba (the Ukrainian foreign minister) tweeted Friday morning, that Russia has been asked to follow the rules of war, and inform them about where they are going to attack, in order to reduce casualties.
A source familiar with the matter said that Biden’s national-security team met Thursday night at the White House Situation Room to discuss the ongoing Russian military buildup at the border with Ukraine.
In a NBC interview this week, Biden advised that Americans still living in Ukraine should leave immediately.
Biden stated that “American citizens should flee now”, to Lester Holt, “NBC Nightly News” anchor. It’s not like we are dealing with terrorist organizations. We are dealing with one the largest armies of the world. This is a different situation and things could get crazy fast.”
NBC News Wednesday reported that Americans in need of assistance from Ukraine could be brought through Poland to receive assistance from U.S. soldiers.
A senior defense official stated that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had ordered Friday’s deployment of 3,000 additional U.S. soldiers in Poland to complement the 1,700 troops already deployed. Poland lies along the border with Ukraine in the northwest. The 82nd Airborne Infantry Brigade Combat Team, Fort Bragg (N.C.), has an additional 3,000 soldiers. Over the next few days, these troops will leave Fort Bragg. According to the official, they are expected to arrive in Fort Bragg by next week.
Administration officials last week announced that approximately 3,000 troops would be deployed by the United States to defend European allies.
Sullivan stressed that the U.S. troops sent to the region were not intended to engage with Russia but to provide defense aid to NATO allies.
John Kirby, Pentagon press secretary, stated that approximately 1,000 soldiers from a Stryker infantry regimen would be moved to Romania. This is near the border of Ukraine and Poland.
In the meantime, 300 members from the 18th Airborne Corps arrived in Germany to set up a headquarters capable of coordinating a task force.
In an attempt to press Putin to calm down the situation at Ukraine’s border, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, met Putin face-toface at the Kremlin this week. Biden also hosted Olaf Scholz (Germany’s new chancellor) at the White House.
Biden traveled Friday to Camp David where he will spend the weekend. Yohannes Abraham (Deputy Assistant to the President and Chief of Staff and Executive Secretary of the National Security Council) was among the senior advisers who joined Biden on his trip.
