More than two-fifths of the American population believe that a civil war in the United States in the next ten years is at least “reasonably likely”. That’s according to a new survey commissioned by YouGov and The Economist magazine.
In the current survey, 65 percent of all respondents stated that political violence had increased since the beginning of 2021. Slightly fewer, 62 percent, believed that political violence would increase in the coming years.
Respondents were also asked, “Looking at the next ten years, how likely do you think it is that there will be a civil war in this country?”
Of all US citizens, 43 percent thought a civil war was at least “reasonably likely.” Among Democrats and independents, it was 40 percent. Among the staunch Republicans, 54 percent thought a civil war was at least reasonably likely. Other polls had come to similar results before, the Guardian reports.
On Sunday, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham predicted “riots in the streets” should ex-President Donald Trump be charged over documents confiscated by the FBI from his Mar-a-Lago home.
Graham received widespread criticism for this. On Monday, Mary McCord, a former Assistant Attorney General, told CNN that it was “incredibly irresponsible for an elected official to issue essentially veiled threats of violence just because law enforcement and the Justice Department are doing their jobs.”
The statement “people are angry, they could become violent” shows that both Trump and Graham know that people listen to such statements and actually “do something”. According to McCord, the riots on January 6, 2021 were the result of exactly these tactics by Trump and his allies.
In the United States, the storming of the Capitol is considered a key date in the discussion about the brutalization of political discourse. A total of nine deaths, including suicides by police officers, were linked to the riots, the Guardian said. Since the attack on the American parliament, fears of political acts of violence have been growing in the United States. However, most experts consider a long-term armed conflict like the last American Civil War between 1861 and 1865 to be very unlikely.
However, the fear that the political division will lead to political violence in the long term is present. Especially as some Republicans who support Trump’s stolen election tale are running for key positions in state elections.
Sources: The Guardian, YouGov poll
