Around 6.1 million Lower Saxony are called on Sunday to elect a new state parliament.
The SPD and CDU are currently governing in a grand coalition led by Prime Minister Stephan Weil. The SPD politician is aiming for a third term, but hopes for a new edition of red-green. Weil had already led such an alliance from 2013 to 2017. CDU top candidate Bernd Althusmann, currently Economics Minister, does not rule out another grand coalition.
SPD ahead in recent polls
In the most recent polls, the SPD (31 to 32 percent) was just ahead of the CDU (27 to 30 percent), followed by the Greens (16 to 19 percent). The AfD (9 to 11 percent) could improve to a double-digit result, the FDP (5 percent) has to tremble about staying in the state parliament in Hanover. The left (3 to 4 percent) was just below the five percent hurdle.
The all-determining issue in the election campaign was the energy crisis, which is why the Lower Saxony elections are also being watched with great excitement in Berlin. The CDU in particular also declared the election to be a vote on the crisis policy of the traffic light coalition in the federal government.
Popularity bonus from Prime Minister Weil
During the election campaign, the SPD relied heavily on Prime Minister Weil’s popularity ratings. In polls on the preferred prime minister – Weil or Althusmann – the SPD man was regularly well ahead of his challenger. Thanks in part to this official bonus, the polls for the SPD in Lower Saxony are significantly better than in the federal government.
However, a few days before the election, Weil had to put up with a setback when he chaired a federal-state summit on the energy crisis without a result – grist to the mill of the CDU, which accuses the federal government around Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) of not having a clear plan to address energy concerns.
In the 2017 state elections, the SPD (36.9 percent) was the strongest force, followed by the CDU (33.6 percent), the Greens (8.7 percent), the FDP (7.5 percent) and the AfD (6.2 percent). . The left narrowly missed entering the state parliament in Hanover with 4.6 percent. Voter turnout was 63.1 percent.
It is unclear whether concerns about rising prices will particularly motivate voters to go to the polls this time, or whether they will be discouraged from doing so. However, a higher proportion of postal votes than in the past state elections is expected.
