According to calculations by the management consultancy BCG, a shortage of labor costs Germany 84 billion dollars (86 billion euros) in lost economic output every year. According to the authors, the losses in the German economy are the second highest after the USA in a comparison of the economically strongest nations, according to the study by the Boston Consulting Group.
The study authors Johann Harnoss and Janina Kugel prepared the paper in cooperation with the United Nations International Organization for Migration. The calculation for Germany was based on the figures from the Nuremberg Institute for Labor Market and Occupational Research, which reported 1.9 million job vacancies for the second quarter.
$84,000 economic output
“That’s about a million above the long-term average,” said Harnoss of the dpa. “Both economists and we see that as a structural deficiency.” Harnoss and former Siemens HR director Kugel assume that on average each of these one million missing employees would generate around $84,000 in economic output per year – a total of $84 billion.
Even assuming immigration of 300,000 to 400,000 people per year, the number of people of working age would drop by three million by 2035 and by nine million by 2050, Harnoss and Kugel estimate.
“The cost of 84 billion will be even greater if we don’t counteract it,” said Kugel. “While the US has the most vacancies, it’s also best placed to close the gap.” In the United States, Kugel and Harnoss project a labor force gap of 19 million by 2050, but also expect the same number of immigrants.
Targeted recruitment of workers
Harnoss suggests that Germany specifically recruit workers from countries whose populations are still growing. “One possibility would be to train the people there in their home countries before they come to Germany.” That would have advantages for the immigrants, for the countries of origin and for the destination countries.” He cited India, Nigeria, Indonesia and Egypt as examples.
“We must have non-ideological lines,” Kugel pleaded for a factual discussion of immigration. “If we get an even greater shortage of skilled workers, we will get political discussions in completely different tones,” she said, referring to the affordability of the pension and health systems.
“Where immigration takes place on a large scale, acceptance is also significantly higher,” Kugel argued, referring to cities like Munich, where a very high proportion of immigrants goes hand in hand with a comparatively low influx of extremists.
Kugel and Harnoss advise German small and medium-sized businesses to increasingly look to the international labor market – and not just to replace local workers who are leaving. “The more diverse companies are, the more innovative they are,” said Kugel, referring to US tech companies that employ a large number of immigrants.
