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John Guaidó: “we Need a solution in Venezuela is as it is,”
The politician who spearheaded the expectations of change in Venezuela faces, a year after his election as president of the National Assembly, a crisis of legitimacy, which lies in the fact that, in the final analysis, nothing has changed in the caribbean country at the political level. This Sunday John Guaidó culminates the first term at the helm of Parliament, dominated by opposition to Nicolás Maduro, and seeks to reclaim the fee that was recognized as a representative acting by almost 60 countries. But if you 2019 began with the promise of a political turn deep, which went by the mantra of the end of chavez, the beginning of a period of transition and the calling of free elections and the 2020 does so without celebration. Guaidó asks for a second chance while Mature got to hunker down in power despite an offensive almost continuously during the first six months of the year.
The strategy of Guaidó, leader of the Popular Will party which was released as an almost complete unknown, it was a roller coaster. The politician, who proclaimed himself president in charge on the 23rd of January during a massive mobilization, entrusted it all to the support of the united States and, to a lesser extent, from neighboring Colombia. However, both the Management of Donald Trump as the Government of Ivan Duke ended up scrunching their support of the rhetoric and some of the sanctions that have failed to break the appliance chavez.
The purpose of breaking the Armed Forces and to provoke a rebellion mass stayed in a trickle of defections has accelerated with the failed attempt to introduce in February, humanitarian aid across the border. The military uprising of April 30, was an episode of maximum voltage, although the involvement of high officials like the former chief of the intelligence, Christopher Figuera, did not prevent his greatest achievement was the release from her house arrest of Leopoldo Lopez, today to seek asylum in the residence of the ambassador of Spain. Meanwhile, Guaidó made tradeoffs between sectors moderate of the opposition, willing to rehearse a dialogue with chavismo as it happened last summer under the auspices of Norway, and the more radicals, who are still fantasizing with the hypothesis of a military intervention, and do not hide their discomfort with him.
His re-election this Sunday is a likely scenario, despite the offensive launched by the chavez who, according to sources familiar with the internal negotiations, hatched a plot bribing of deputies opponents. However, the next stage of the president of the Assembly is presented as the puzzle of always. Maduro is not willing to leave the power and has shown on repeated occasions. And the weariness of the great majority of the population collides with his need to get ahead and deal with the day-to-day after two decades of management that have brought the country to ruin by the hyperinflation and an exodus without precedent, more than four million people.
As the past January, the leadership of the opposition looks at a country hopeless, but on this occasion, to the despair add the expectations fostered by Guaidó and ended up frustrated. In addition, this is not the same discouragement, as is reflected in the latest survey by the consulting firm Delphos, released in December. Venezuelans continue to look forward, in their majority, a change of Government, but if 54.8% want elections, only 37.6 per cent believed it possible.
“it makes No sense not to have learned from the failures, because it is not always life gives you a second chance. Having failed to move forward on a transition is not a win. But neither is a total failure, it is a game that is in development,” notes the political scientist Benigno Alarcón on the situation that is presented to the Guaidó, who, in his opinion, has many possibilities to continue this Sunday in front of the Parliament, for which only needs a simple majority, which chavez has tried to boycott first the persecution and judicial harassment of legislators and more recently with the purchase of their votes.
A 2019 in which you bet everything to a breakdown of the Armed Force, and in which only achieved two military skirmishes failed becomes the main error review, writes the director of the Center for Political Studies and Government of the UCAB. “Bet was a wrong to think that a transition is generated by a division of the Armed Force. The cost of dividing the FAN is on high, when this happens, a country goes into civil war. It is necessary to consider a dynamic strategy, in which each move changes the game. And we can’t be more or less by having to change the strategy.”
The major capital, and that now the opposition represented in Guaidó is that the majority of the country still wants a democratic change. Another strength is the support of 56 foreign Governments, of the things unpublished that has had this process, points to the transition specialist. These supports international as the Group of Lima, or the so-called International Contact Group of the European Union adds to the look of the world about the stagnation of the negotiations attempted by Norway in August, and the eyes of the multilateral agencies that finally came to rest on the crisis, with the slow installation of the humanitarian staff of the UN in the country and the echo of the report of the High Commissioner Michelle Bachelet, after his visit in may. In the third place, even with its low, the “leadership resilient” of Guaidó stays in the picture, on top of other figures of the opposition and chavismo.
to The contrary, for Alarcón, a year after having played the forward position swearing to a charge on the basis of the election are qualified from fraud to may 20, 2018, Mature is in the same place. Has not improved its level of acceptance, has no more political support. “Your floor political is a ceiling and it depends on extraordinarily of the repressive apparatus and the cohesion of their allies to maintain power. But has been known to handle very well a very difficult time politically and economically with the help of their partners. These times are similar to the Cuba of the blockade and the fall of the USSR, in which all thought that the Forts were going out and were able to keep up with resistance and stubbornness, because the costs of tolerance of political change are very high, the investigations and sanctions for corruption and violation of human rights”.
And in this second time -the last one for the National Assembly opposition, with their possible minutes off to please Guaidó – the determining factor will be the parliamentary elections, which according to the Constitution are foreseen the end of the year.
