On May 9, Russia traditionally celebrates “Victory Day” over Nazi Germany. Will Putin try to make the military parade a show of strength? Putin has had no real success in Ukraine. That was the problem last year. The Russians originally wanted to conquer Kiev in three days, the Ukraine successfully defended itself, and nothing came of the big victory parade. This year it is repeated in an even sharper form. Most of the soldiers from the original invading army are dead or wounded, and a silent mobilization has been going on for months. And now it doesn’t work to present Bachmut as an operational success on the day of victory, because the Ukraine still holds the west of the city and the Russian death toll is so high. So you need excuses to cover up your own weaknesses.
For example, security concerns? With this reason, the celebrations were canceled in many cities in Russia. The real reason may be that Russia no longer has enough tanks to demonstrate high-tech systems in many places at the same time. You don’t want to show yourself the vulnerability of bringing up old scrap material on the day of victory. Red Square in Moscow has been completely blocked over the past few weeks, directional and satellite communications in the city center are being specifically disrupted, and there was this alleged drone attack on the Kremlin. Everything seems paranoid. Apparently there are fears that Ukraine could set a counterpoint to this parade.
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