Things will get serious for Hans-Georg Maaßen on Saturday. At a general meeting of the right-wing conservative, CDU-affiliated “Values Union” in Erfurt, a vote will be taken on whether the association should be merged into a party. Maaßen is committed to this as chairman. This would mean that the CDU-affiliated club would break with its parent party and turn to the right – towards the AfD.
If the members vote in favor, the Values Union party could take part in the state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg next autumn – and thus shake up the party landscape.
One thing is certain: the AfD has rushed from one poll high to the next in recent months. It would currently be the strongest force in Thuringia (31 percent), Saxony (37 percent) and Brandenburg (28 percent). Government participation has so far been virtually impossible. The CDU, SPD, Greens, Left and the FDP wanted nothing to do with the far-right party and refused to work together. Now the Values Union party and the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) could become coalition explosives:
In Thuringia, according to the survey, BSW would get just under 17 percent straight away and would even be ahead of the currently ruling left (15 percent). According to an Insa survey commissioned by the right-wing populist newspaper “Junge Freiheit”, 12 percent of voters could currently imagine voting for a Union of Values party if it were founded – not a particularly large number, but perhaps enough given the AfD’s high poll numbers to actually provide the government.
So far, Maaßen, as chairman of the Union of Values, has expressly not ruled out collaboration with the AfD – as the only protagonist. So if the eventual party really gets close to double-digit numbers, it could become a stirrup holder for the AfD.
If the two right-wing parties cannot agree on cooperation, coalitions would also be possible in which the CDU would ultimately triumph. The only crux: The Christian Democrats (currently at 20 percent) would have to work together with the BSW.
The situation would be similarly complicated in Brandenburg. The AfD is currently at 28 percent. Even if the Union of Values were to found a party and achieve presentable results, the parties would probably miss the majority for a far-right-right coalition.
The BSW would come to 13 percent. The CDU is currently at 18 percent, the Greens at eight and the SPD at 17 percent. Conversely, this means: Forming a government without the AfD and the Union of Values would be possible if the CDU, SPD and BSW joined forces or if the current red-black-green government included the Left in a four-party coalition. So far, the CDU has emphasized that it will not work with the Left.
The situation looks different in Saxony. According to surveys, the AfD is currently at 37 percent and would even have a chance of winning an absolute majority – assuming it gets just over 40 percent and the SPD (three percent) and the FDP (one percent) are kicked out of the state parliament.
Thanks to the strength of the AfD, the Values Union party could actually tip the scales. If the Maaßen party were to crack the five percent hurdle and enter the state parliament, a majority with the AfD would probably be assured. But if it doesn’t make it and the AfD remains below the absolute majority, the CDU (33 percent) would have the option of forming a coalition with the Greens (seven percent) or with the Left (eight percent).
If the members of the Union of Values actually vote to found a party on Saturday, the situation in the party landscape in Germany will become even more complicated. Although it is still completely unclear whether and how successful the party could be, it is moving into a position where it could decide on the governing party with just a few percent. Its chairman, Hans-Georg Maaßen, will be aware of how great his influence could become, even if the party wins relatively few votes.
Sources: “Zeit Online”, “Tagesspiegel”, “Bild.de”
