Security expert Christian Mölling expects that the USA will prevail at the NATO summit in Vilnius by rejecting Ukraine’s rapid accession to the alliance. Mölling said on Tuesday in the stern podcast “Ukraine – the situation” that the western states would have to try to get Ukraine closer to the alliance “without being able to cross the red line of the USA at the same time, that Ukraine at this point in time will not become a member of NATO”. The research director of the German Society for Foreign Relations pointed out that the USA is the only actor that can guarantee military security on its own. The Europeans are not able to do that. US President Joe Biden is striving for a security partnership with Ukraine, which has been invaded by Russia, in the same way that the USA connects with Israel – i.e. military support, but without a contractual obligation to provide assistance.
Mölling emphasized that the negative attitude of the USA and Germany towards Ukraine’s rapid NATO accession was not new and was known to all those involved. The position of the Americans may have contributed to the fact that other states publicly spoke out in favor of Ukraine’s admission – in the knowledge that this would not happen any time soon. “If the USA were to fall, many others could come and say: Ah, I’ve changed my mind again,” said Mölling. “These are typical negotiation dynamics that make it easy to hide behind the big players.”
From Mölling’s point of view, the Europeans cannot assume the role of the USA as the guarantor of military security. “The question of war and peace is a deeply national issue that no one delegates,” said the expert. Therefore, however, it is almost impossible for the Europeans to create a common security that includes a mechanism that does not require lengthy consultations. “Compared to the United States, you have a lot of small states in Europe that don’t all agree and therefore make a uniform policy impossible overall.”
This does not mean that everyone cannot contribute to a policy objective. The development so far shows that there is a common sanctions policy and also a common pot of the European Union for support services. “But when we turn to the question of defense policy, it’s individual achievements,” said Mölling. “Everyone has laid their individual pipeline of support to Ukraine.”
