In the Oval Office, the office of the US President, there is this old fireplace, ivory white, with subtle ornaments. Before him, it was possible to observe many times what the state of German-American relations was like. Gerhard Schröder and George W. Bush celebrated their reconciliation here in a very friendly way. Donald Trump rather grimly refused to shake hands with Angela Merkel.
There are only nice fireplace pictures of Olaf Scholz and Joe Biden. Two statesmen listening carefully to each other. Two social democrats who like each other. That’s how it was before, and that’s how it is now.
Biden welcomes Scholz, a fire crackles in the fireplace behind them. The wood cracks so loudly that you can barely hear Biden’s greeting three meters away.
Scholz is the speaker in this duo.
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He congratulates the Chancellor for his leadership in supporting Ukraine, Biden says clearly enough for all the cameras in the room. Scholz nods happily.
The German Chancellor is a guest of the American President, which is officially a working visit. For Biden and Scholz, however – and they never tired of emphasizing this – it is an exchange between good friends.
The timing of the meeting could hardly have been better. Scholz is traveling to Washington in a week in which billions in aid for Ukraine and Israel failed after long negotiations in the US Congress. And it comes at a time when he is campaigning in Europe for more arms supplies to the Ukrainian army.
Scholz says he hopes that Congress will approve the aid quickly. Biden raises his right hand slightly and clasps his index and middle fingers.
Fingers crossed.
It’s a bleak scenario: If military aid no longer comes from the USA, if other European states no longer deliver, Scholz and Germany’s commitment to Ukraine will be lonely. The Chancellor could really use the encouragement of an old friend – even if he himself can do very little when it comes to Ukraine.
In return, Biden can tolerate his guest’s solidarity particularly well this afternoon: In the US election campaign, the president’s slips of the tongue and suspected memory lapses are the topic of the day.
Sure, Scholz and Biden speak on the phone regularly. But such a personal exchange is something completely different, as was previously said from those around Scholz. The relationship is trusting. The meeting was scheduled to last an hour in the Oval Office. In the end it takes significantly longer. The Chancellor particularly wanted to exchange ideas with the US President about support for Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East.
Traffic light disputes and household chaos are far away on this trip abroad. This is about more.
After the conversation, Scholz stands outside the White House in Lafayette Park. His last statement of the trip is accompanied by the sound of a street musician’s trombone.
“One can safely say that the relations between Germany and the USA are currently as intense, as close and as amicable as they probably haven’t been for many years and decades,” says Scholz.
He seems correspondingly satisfied. But of course, even after the conversation, what the Chancellery had spread beforehand still applies: one should not overestimate the German influence in Washington.
But you can still try, can’t you?
Scholz placed his message to the American establishment in the Wall Street Journal on the day of his arrival. The business newspaper is read well into the more moderate Republican camp. So from people who are quite critical of arms deliveries to Ukraine. Which are still accessible for good arguments.
“We must do everything in our power to prevent a Russian victory.” writes Scholz in the guest article and calls for further military aid for Ukraine. “If we don’t do this, we could soon find ourselves in a world that is even more unstable, threatening and unpredictable than during the Cold War.”
It is a text that Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann and Anton Hofreiter should also like.
Scholz appears in Washington with the self-confidence of a man who fulfills his target. Germany has now delivered or already decided on military equipment worth more than 30 billion euros. From the Chancellor’s point of view, the days in which the Federal Republic of Germany had to justify its contribution to the security architecture of the West are also over. NATO’s two percent target? Fulfills.
Scholz has always closely coordinated German support for Ukraine with the US. His text is above all an appeal for it to stay that way. One must “continue to proceed strategically in lockstep on both sides of the Atlantic,” he writes.
The Chancellor has every reason to be concerned. The situation in Ukraine is developing in a direction that should alarm the entire Western alliance. The government and military have been arguing for months. President Volodymyr Zelensky has just replaced the commander-in-chief. After the failed offensive last year, the army in the east of the country is now barely managing to hold the front. Only the clever use of drones saves Zelensky’s troops from relevant Russian breakthroughs and terrain gains.
The Ukrainian army is missing almost everything: soldiers, tanks, artillery ammunition. Morale doesn’t just die in the trenches.
In this situation of all places, an impression is now emerging in Europe and the USA that Putin’s propaganda machine could not have staged better: the West’s support is shaky. The problem with this is that it’s not just an impression.
Shortly after arrival, the day before his visit to the White House, the Chancellor met several senators and representatives of the House of Representatives for dinner, four from each party. Rock bass is served with vegetables in lobster sauce. At dinner, Scholz can see how his appeal to arms is being received in Washington. Lindsay Graham came, an influential Republican, sometimes a Trump critic, sometimes a Trump fan. But there is also Chris Coons, a Democratic senator who looks so similar to Scholz that the two posed for a lookalike photo.
There are, to put it mildly, eventful days ahead for members of Congress. After long negotiations, an agreement between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate failed for the time being on Tuesday. In order to get billions in aid for Ukraine and Israel through Congress, Democrats would have pushed for stricter laws for border protection with Mexico.
The Republicans had been pushing for this – before they realized shortly before the vote that this wasn’t enough of a concession for them. Now there are further discussions about how military aid for Ukraine and Israel can be decided. Exit? Open.
Scholz said after the meeting with members of Congress that he was confident that a decision could be made soon. Not many in Washington share the Chancellor’s confidence. Negotiations have been going on for too long.
Where did the Republicans’ recent U-turn come from? US President Biden quickly identified the culprit. Donald Trump hasn’t even been officially elected as a presidential candidate yet; he’s already back in control of the party: wouldn’t an agreement with the Democrats be good for Trump? Okay, then there aren’t any.
Scholz does not allow any thoughts of a second term in office for the ex-president on this trip. He doesn’t even have to. Cooperation on military aid is already difficult enough – despite the old friend in the Oval Office.
If there is no agreement in Congress, Biden says in front of the crackling fire, then that would be “close to criminal negligence.” Scholz just nods again. What would he have to add to that?
