Security expert Christian Mölling sees great pressure in Ukraine to launch an offensive soon in order to achieve military success. Mölling said on Tuesday in the stern podcast “Ukraine – the situation”: “I think we are dealing with the calm before the storm.” He pointed out that western battle tanks were heavier than Russian ones and would therefore sink even more in the mud. Therefore, the possibility of using the newly arrived weapons effectively is somewhat reduced. “We still have the banality of the weather,” said the research director of the German Society for Foreign Relations. In addition, the ammunition stocks might not yet be sufficient. But: “The need for military success and thus also political bargaining chips is simply enormous on the Ukrainian side.” In addition, there is the will to achieve these successes. “The question now is when will it start. And with how much breath, with how much stamina will it be presented,” said Mölling. “I believe that it has to be political as well as militarily.”

Mölling does not expect Ukraine to accept Brazilian President Lula as a mediator as the conflict progresses. “You can not assume that he is something like an honest broker,” said Mölling. In particular, he accused him of ignoring who attacked whom. “Who started it? That’s a crucial question,” argued Mölling.

He noted with concern that there are numerous countries, particularly in Latin America and Africa, that either do not commit themselves or are more inclined towards Russia. For years, Russia and China have sought to influence countries that are not on the side of the West. It is not clear which view will ultimately have more success. This is also due to “a very Eurocentric view of what is right and what is wrong”. But one shouldn’t assume that others will automatically adopt the Western perspective: “That’s actually not the case.” This is also due to the “dependencies in all directions”.

According to the political scientist, the confrontation between democracies and autocracies also has an impact on major tasks that can only be solved globally. “Keyword climate change and protection of the seas.” Mölling made it clear that “living side by side” is not enough for effective climate protection.