Before the expected large-scale offensive in Ukraine, security expert Christian Mölling observes a reorientation of Russian expectations of the outcome of the war. Mölling spoke on Friday in the stern podcast “Ukraine – the situation” of a “diffusion of the war goals” by the Moscow leadership. She is now emphasizing more strongly that an attack by the West must be fended off and that Ukraine’s NATO membership must be prevented. The Donbass, on the other hand, is hardly mentioned anymore. The research director of the German Society for Foreign Relations explained that Russia could also accept the loss of occupied territories if expectations changed. “As long as this is a controllable loss,” he might still be able to communicate. At the same time, he made it clear that Russia’s military defeat is conceivable but by no means certain: “There will be an offensive – we don’t yet know how big and successful it will be.” The development on the battlefield is crucial. Because: “The extent of the success not only depends very much on Ukraine’s negotiating position, but also on how Moscow reacts.”
In the event of a Russian defeat, the West would strive to avoid an unpredictable situation. Nobody has an interest in “complete instability in the sense of a collapse,” said Mölling. That’s why nobody wants the apparatus of violence, which alone is holding the country together at the moment, to “fly apart completely and you don’t know what will come next”. Mölling sees the Russian soldiers, who have dug into defensive positions in Ukraine, in a desperate situation. “The soldiers know they are facing death,” he said. You would have the alternative of possibly dying in battle or being shot immediately by your own people. “They will fight in their trenches,” he expects. “People will die in droves without much military gain.”
The expert cautiously assessed the new contacts between Ukraine and China after the phone call between Presidents Volodymyr Zelensky and Xi Jinping. Only gradually will one see whether these talks bring a solution closer. “I’m skeptical at first,” said Mölling. It only gets interesting “when China opens up a new account and says that Russia’s situation is so bad that it makes sense to change our position on Ukraine a little.”
