When Defense Minister Boris Pistorius demanded last November that the country must become fit for war again, many Germans accustomed to peace were downright outraged. All he did was remind people of something that had been forgotten over the decades: the possibility of war. Or better: the fact that European powers use war as a means of their politics. Again. Or further, like Russia under its President Vladimir Putin. Hardly anyone can now rule out that his attempt to invade Ukraine could be followed by attacks on other states, including NATO members.
The defense alliance is now rehearsing this emergency. “Steadfast Defender” is the name of the large-scale maneuver with which NATO is practicing the worst-case scenario: an invasion by Russia into a European country. 90,000 soldiers will be mobilized for around four months from mid-February. It is the largest military exercise of its kind in decades, says the commander in chief of NATO forces in Europe, Christopher Cavoli. And: “The alliance will demonstrate its ability to strengthen the Euro-Atlantic region by deploying US troops.”
According to the US general, preparations for the maneuvers should begin next week. The actual start is scheduled for February. The aim is to train in particular the alerting and deployment of national and multinational land forces.
According to information from the DPA news agency, the scenario of the exercise is a Russian attack on allied territory, which leads to the declaration of the so-called alliance case according to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. The latter regulates the obligation to provide assistance in the alliance and states that an armed attack against one or more allies is viewed as an attack against all.
According to its own information, the Bundeswehr will participate in “Steadfast Defender” with, among other things, a four-stage large-scale exercise called “Quadriga 2024”. More than 12,000 soldiers are expected to be deployed by the end of May and, in particular, to train skills for quickly deploying forces to the NATO eastern flank. From mid-May, for example, the 10th Panzer Division will deploy soldiers with combat vehicles to Lithuania in various ways and demonstrate their fighting skills in a test battle there.
The NATO state in the Baltics is one of the countries that feel particularly threatened by Russia because of its location. People there fear that one day they could face a similar fate to the people in Ukraine, who have now been confronted with a Russian war of aggression for almost two years. Cavoli said the exercise will be a clear demonstration of the alliance’s cohesion, strength and determination to protect each other.
In the south of the Baltic state is the so-called “Suwalki Gap”, a 70-kilometer-wide strip of land that lies between Belarus and Kaliningrad and extends to the left and right of the Lithuanian-Polish border. NATO strategists have long been concerned that Russia could advance there in order to cut off the Baltic states from the other NATO countries. This is also why the Bundeswehr has begun to permanently station 4,000 soldiers there.
NATO is planning to have almost 100,000 soldiers and more than 50 ships – from aircraft carriers to destroyers. Over 80 fighter jets, including the F-35, helicopters and drones will be used, as well as at least 1,100 combat vehicles and 133 tanks.
In addition to Germany, Great Britain is also an important troop contributor for the exercise. The Ministry of Defense in London recently announced that around 20,000 British soldiers from the sea, air and land forces will take part.
The training space at “Steadfast Defender” stretches from Norway to countries like Romania. According to the Bundeswehr, there will also be a maritime exercise component with the relocation of forces from North America to Europe. But the focus is on Poland.
The largest NATO exercise since the end of the Cold War was organized in 2018 with a focus on Norway. Around 51,000 soldiers were involved. The last NATO maneuvers larger than the one now planned took place before the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. At that time there was, among other things, the series of maneuvers with the cinematic name “Return of Forces to Germany”. In 1988, for example, around 125,000 soldiers were involved.
When announcing the upcoming exercise, NATO did not mention Russia by name. Rather, it says that the reaction to a “simulated incipient conflict with an opponent of almost equal rank” should be trained. However, the alliance’s central strategy paper names Russia as the greatest threat to the security of NATO countries.
The maneuver will test the implementation of the first regional defense plans. After a decade-long break, NATO designed these again. They were adopted last year at the NATO summit in Vilnius. Previously, NATO had seen no need for such plans for a long time. On the one hand, Western countries were more likely to be involved in relatively small wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. On the other hand, the alliance felt certain that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia would not pose an existential threat.
Sources: DPA, AFP, Reuters, “Hamburger Abendblatt”
