There is not much leeway anymore. After the coup in Niger, the West African community of states Ecowas agreed to a military intervention. Accordingly, a target date for the deployment is set, but it should not be published.
Niger, along with neighboring countries Mali and Burkina Faso, has responded by developing a defense strategy with “concrete measures” if Ecowas decides to “spread war,” Niger state television said.
“We are prepared for an attack,” said Burkina Faso’s defense minister, Kassoum Coulibaly, after a meeting of representatives of the three countries in the Niger capital, Niamey. Mali and Burkina Faso, like Niger, have been ruled by the military since coups in their countries. Thousands of young men queued up at Niamey football stadium on Saturday to join the army.
Military action or peaceful solution?
Ecowas announced late on Friday that its task forces were ready to intervene in Niger after the coup three weeks ago “as soon as the order was given”. A target date for an operation has been set but will not be publicly announced, said Ecowas Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Abdel-Fatau Musah.
Nevertheless, the search for a peaceful solution should continue to have priority. All options, including a diplomatic solution, remained on the table, Musah said. Military chiefs from nine of the 15 member countries met on Thursday and Friday in Ghana’s capital, Accra.
An Ecowas mission immediately traveled to Niger on Saturday. If this fails, the confederation will resort to a military solution to restore constitutional order in Niger, Musah said. All member states except those governed by the military and Cape Verde wanted to participate.
UN delegation and US ambassador in Niamey
Also on Saturday, a UN delegation in Niamey spoke to Niger’s Prime Minister Lamine Zeine. There is “no crisis without a solution, and a solution can always be found in dialogue,” said UN Special Envoy for West Africa, Leonardo Santos Simão, on state television.
New US Ambassador Kathleen FitzGibbon also arrived in Niamey on Saturday to step up efforts to resolve the political crisis. “As a senior diplomat with extensive experience in West Africa, she is uniquely placed to lead the US government’s efforts to support the American community and protect Niger’s hard-earned democracy,” the US State Department said.
In fact, there are still many unanswered questions regarding a military operation. In Nigeria, the parliament would first have to approve an operation. There is great resistance, especially in the states bordering Niger. An intervention would also be extremely unpopular among the population. In Ghana, too, the parliament has so far blocked the deployment of troops.
The mission itself is likely to be a difficult undertaking for Ecowas. The airspace over the Niger has been closed since the coup, and the airport in the capital Niamey is controlled by the junta. This is considered to be well trained and equipped.
Ecowas could be inferior
As Western partners, the USA, Canada, Italy, Belgium, Germany and to some extent France had trained and equipped thousands of Nigerien soldiers. Experts warn that an Ecowas intervention force could be defeated in a confrontation. Instead, they could ignite a regional conflict in West Africa.
After the July 26 coup in Niger, Ecowas is demanding a reinstatement of the constitution and of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, who is under house arrest. Niger, a Sahel country with around 26 million inhabitants and one of the poorest populations in the world, was one of the last democratic partners of the USA and European states on the southern edge of the Sahara before the coup.
In an interview with the New York Times, a civilian member of the junta vowed that President Bazoum would not be harmed. The new rulers had previously accused Bazoum of high treason. This is punishable by death in Niger.
