Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tried in the last few months so a lot to its popularity in the Turkish population, maintain: In the North of Syria, he started a military offensive. Then he sent the Refugees to the Turkish-Greek border to put pressure on Europe. Both of these actions should generate nationalist feelings and, therefore, the consent of the population. The Corona-crisis offered him a further opportunity to make a name for himself as a crisis Manager. The Turkish government has delivered: there is relatively little Corona-Dead, efficient measures that hospitals mastered the patient-crush scores.

But it all availed nothing: surveys of all of the major opinion research institutes to draw the same image: Erdogan’s AKP, and its allies, the ultra-national MHP, have significantly lost in popularity in the Turkish population. Since the last parliamentary election in November 2018, the government party lost about ten percentage points. It is now only between 32 and 39 percent. The opposition camp ahead of it, predict institutions such as MAK, Avrasya, or Area.

the reason for the popularity loss is the ongoing economic and monetary crisis, which added to since the summer of 2018, the population massively. Measures in economic policy, such as interest rate reductions, brought no changes for the better: as before, there is high Inflation and unemployment, high Rents, expensive food.

The competition never sleeps

to make matters worse for Erdogan, that the Turkish voters Alternatives: Two splinter parties sit to the President in the neck. Your target audience, especially voters who are disappointed by the ACP are.

The former Minister for the economy Ali Babacan founded the party for democracy and progress (DEVA). The designated financial expert for the, some liberal, reform zeal in the early years of the Erdogan Era. For some, the Economist is considered to be the ideal candidate to Turkey to maneuver out of the economic crisis out. Ex-Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, he also belonged to the inner circle of Erdogan, is challenging the government with his newly formed future party Gelecek. He represents a nationalist AKP voters an Alternative.

Two dwarf parties as tipping the scales

Although the parties to the two Breakaway Davutoglu and Babacan are only between 3 and 5.5 percent. However, in the case of an Alliance with the Opposition bloc, made up of the social democratic CHP, the ultra-national IYI party and the left-wing HDP is assembled, you could make all the difference.

the Turkish Public, rumors have been circulating for some time that the Turkish government wants to bind with the help of early parliamentary elections in this scenario. Turkish media speculate that the elections could take place in the coming year. Actually, it’d urns, the next course of the election only in the year 2023 give. The move would prevent DEVA and Gelecek because it is assumed to organize in a timely manner. The Turkish party law allows parties to take part in the election, organised in at least half of all Turkish provinces and one-third of the constituencies.

DEVA and the future party – a battle against time

The Deputy DEVA-Chairman Idris Sahin in an interview with Deutsche Welle, nevertheless, optimistic: “If we continue our organizational activities during the summer months, we have already organized in September in all 81 provinces. In the same month, we will be holding a party Congress.”

The Vice-Chairman of the future party, Ayhan Sefer Üstün comes to a similar conclusion: There are “thousands of ways” to be in the elections there. “All Attempts to prevent us to participate in elections, are completely useless.” Soon, the party Congress will take place, the headquarters of the future party will be opened soon, says Üstün.

reforms, as a choice or a strategic move?

However, the government could use additional Tricks, in order to prevent unpleasant splinter parties to participate. As the Chairman of the ultra-national MHP, Erdogan’s coalition partner, Devlet Bahceli, announced this week, come to think of it, a Change in the electoral and party law. According to the designs of the 72-Year-old should be allowed only parties that received over five percent of the votes, alliances with other parties to respond. A scheme, which could prevent the merger of DEVA and Gelecek with other opposition parties.

“We need electoral and political party laws, which are timely and progressive, and represent the will of the Nation to the full. If that is the case, we support the proposal,” said Üstün. You will not accept it, however, if it is a Trick by the government to claw for as long as possible the Power or “to push the opponent during the game from the playing field.”

local elections of 2019 – Dark memories changes

Whether the Turkish government’s rules, at the end of the game, in order to obtain in the upcoming parliamentary elections benefits, remains speculation. The government supported in the election campaign, unconventional methods, however, already in the recent past. At the mayor election in Istanbul last year, the ACP has left no stone unturned to prevent the election of the social Democrats Ekrem imamoğlu: After the first round of elections in March, Erdogan continued the High election Commission (YSK) for so long, under pressure, until you Neuauszählungen in the first place and then even a repeat of the election prompted.

in Spite of everything, imamoğlu secured at 23. June the mayor’s post today, he is according to surveys conducted by survey institutes, one of the most popular politicians in Turkey. He and his social democratic counterpart from Ankara, Mansur Yavas, had secured during the Corona-crisis due to large commitment to great popularity in the population. Another Duo that sits Erdogan in the neck.

author: Daniel Derya Bellut, Gülsen Solaker

*The post “elections in Turkey: Erdogan’s grip in the box of tricks” is published by Deutsche Welle. Contact with the executives here.

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