Sudan’s capital Khartoum is shrouded in thick clouds of black smoke. Whole blocks of flats tremble again and again. In densely populated neighborhoods, heavy military equipment is being fired at military and government installations. Fighter jets from the Sudanese Air Force fly almost constantly in the sky. Those who can, entrench themselves in their own four walls – and hope that they don’t get caught in the crossfire.
“The explosions are getting louder and more immense. This feeling of helplessness, not knowing what to do or what to expect is debilitating,” wrote Dallia, an eyewitness from Khartoum, on Twitter. Their windows would not stop shaking from the constant explosions for hours. Her family is in the middle part of the apartment, hoping to be safe there. There would be no respite for people, she writes.
The two most powerful generals in the country have been fighting for power since Saturday: de facto President Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the supreme commander of the army, and his deputy and leader of the powerful paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Mohammed Hamdan Daglo. Sudan’s military government was supposed to take an important step towards handing over power to a civilian government this month.
Five years of struggle for democracy
The victims of the outbreak of violence are the 46 million Sudanese, many of whom have been fighting for a democratic government for almost five years. The call for codetermination began at the end of 2018 with months of protests against the long-term autocratic ruler Omar al-Bashir. In April 2019, Al-Bashir was overthrown in a coup by the army, supported by the RSF. Big promises for a return to democracy were made, but few actions matched words. The military seized power with minimal participation from civil society. After another military coup in 2021, Al-Burhan took power completely. Since then, the planned democratization process has made little progress.
Many residents of Sudan now feel betrayed by the military. RSF leader Daglo also takes advantage of this sentiment. He accuses his opponent Al-Burhan of thwarting reforms. Daglo is not entirely wrong: “Many state institutions are still occupied by loyalists of the old Bashir regime. They rejected the democratization process from the start,” says Gerrit Kurtz, Sudan expert from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. According to experts, al-Burhan maintains contacts with al-Bashir loyalists with Islamist leanings.
But Daglo is less concerned with democracy than with his own influence in the country: the RSF, which he heads, would have to be integrated into the military led by Al-Burhan as part of the democratization process. Daglo wants to prevent that. After fighting broke out on Saturday, Daglo told Al-Jazeera TV that Al-Burhan must be captured “or die like a dog.” On the same day, Al-Burhan called for the complete dissolution of the RSF.
In which direction is the country developing?
After three days of fierce fighting, it is largely unclear in which direction events will develop. Currently, the army seems to have the upper hand in the north and east of the country, while the RSF has more control of the west Darfur region, said Ben Hunter, an East Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, a risk assessment firm. Both sides would have tens of thousands of soldiers under their command; however, the army is much better equipped with armored vehicles and air forces.
It is still a dispute between two parties to the conflict, but both are courting the favor of other political actors in the country, says Kurtz: “If other armed militias or ethnic groups take sides, there is a risk that the conflict will affect significant parts of the country could involve civilian populations.”
Hunter also sees a realistic risk of a long-lasting civil war: “Both sides have publicly declared their intention to control all of Sudan, and neither side seems ready to back down.” It’s not just about political influence, but also about Sudan’s wealth in mineral resources, especially oil and gold.
Experts disagree as to whether the current conflict means the end of the democratization process. While some believe that the way is blocked, others harbor faint hope: “The Sudanese have also [in the past] managed to push through their political goals against great resistance,” says Kurtz. However, one thing is certain: the road to get there is longer than ever.
