“If it goes on like this, with the Trend, we have to 19,200 infections of the day”, these shock-forecast German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed on Monday in a video conference with the CDU Bureau.
she was alarmed, worried about the increasing Numbers of Corona infections. You had local foci of infection it very clear approach, otherwise you have to Pay at Christmas in France, she said according to information from the German press Agency (DPA).
today, Tuesday, wants to advise you, therefore, with the Minister presidents of Federal States, what measures need to be taken. According to one of the DPA prior to this design, there are uniform rules for Restaurants and sale of alcohol, private parties, and limits in the case of infections in the room.
The first decision has already been announced: citizens make in a Restaurant or other guest incorrect information economies to their Person, must, in future, expect a minimum fine of 50 Euro. Also Fever outpatient departments as well as a uniform early warning system Merkel wants to discuss. But what the Chancellor put into the Alarm mode?
- More on the topic: Shortly before the Corona summit in the Chancellery leakage first plans
The increase in infection numbers
The forecast of around 19,000 new infections per day, which the Chancellor on Monday in the space, may seem at first sight utopian. After all, the peak values were during the first pandemic wave in Germany, never over 7000.
in fact, the forecast can, however, be statistically relatively easy to understand. Statistician Katharina Schüller explains in an interview with FOCUS Online, such as Angela Merkel comes to this value:
“Until Christmas, there are still twelve weeks,” the data expert. In the past seven days prior to Monday had been reported in Germany 11.656 new infections, on average, in 1665 per day.
Our World in Data In Germany on the Infection to increase further.
Since the R-‘ve located value over the past four days, always at 1.13, would be the 4-day reproduction close cycles. “For the 12 weeks until Christmas so there is still a 20-piece,” explains statistician Schüller. Up to the 24. December it follows, therefore, a number of around 19.178 infections.
bill: 1665 x 1.13^20 = 19.178,941
Schüller admits, however, that this forecast would only fit in two scenarios:
- scenario 1: The increase is not due to the increased number of Tests, or
- scenario 2: A possible Overestimation of the infection increase is compensated by colder temperatures and longer stays in closed rooms.
This is Merkel’s forecast, therefore, by no means utopian – it is simply a matter of exponential growth. And this is to prevent the Chancellor necessarily.
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The carelessness of youth
The rise in infection numbers was put into perspective by experts in the past weeks that mainly younger people infected by the Virus. These carry the pathogen in itself, but they are less likely to get sick or seriously ill, to land more rarely, in the hospital or on the intensive care unit.
However, you can still be a Vector to deliver – especially if they behave carelessly and not to the currently applicable measures are put in place. Merkel had on Monday paid special attention to the capital. There, it’ll be according to the RKI in Berlin-to be in the centre of a “diffuse, worn by young, international travelers and revelers who pass on the road, or even at parties and these infections in their hit, many households and families to spread.”
The capital district was one of on Monday with a 7-day incidence of 55.0 to the most affected regions of Germany. In the meantime, the value of which is at 48.2 in at just under the risk-brand, five more districts in Berlin reported incidences of over 25.
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health Senator Dilek Kalayci called for more stringent rules, both in the private as well as in the public and the catering area. Measures could soon be imposed over the capital, but across the whole of Germany.
The occupancy of intensive care beds
Because in spite of many young Infected it comes to Transfers, and contagions of at-risk groups: more older people are being infected again. Not only absolutely, but also proportionately, as the data of the Robert Koch-Institute show.
In its current location report says, “it Covid-19 are reported for the increasingly-induced outbreaks in nursing homes”.
RKI, The proportion of the age groups 80+, 70-79, and 60-69, the new infections will be greater.
Thus, the number of intensive care patients is on the rise. How intensely from the register of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) and the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive and emergency medicine (DIVI) is set, has eight, the number of Covid-19-patients need to be treated in intensive care units, within one week of triple. While the number at 21. September was 267, it increased to 28. September to 353 of .
surf tip: All the news about the Corona of a pandemic, refer to the News Ticker of FOCUS Online
The views in other countries
another factor, which is the fear of an infection increase in Germany reinforces The view in other countries. Merkel stressed on Monday that the Figures were in the whole of Europe worrying that we should in this country to do everything possible to avoid similar increases, such as in France.
The country is hit hard by the pandemic, had to be recorded last week, a new record for the daily new infections . The Central health authority announced on Thursday evening that within 24 hours 16.096 people have been positively tested.
Our World in Data, France reported on 25. September set a new record of new infections.
On Monday, the authorities reported a further 4070 infections – however, the Numbers are on Mondays, usually a little lower, because on Sundays is less tested. The number of dead rose in one day was 81 on 31.808.
The result of the strong increases: There are tougher rules in many of the areas Restaurants and Bars have to remain closed. The pressure on intensive care units is due to the for weeks, rising Corona of infection, the numbers become so large that the Parisians must not ill cancel houses again which is strictly necessary operations. 20 percent of the scheduled OPs were moved, like the public hospital society, Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) announced.
Merkel wants to set priorities
All of this is to avoid it in this country. How can this work – about German Chancellor Angela Merkel advise on Tuesday with the Prime Minister. Of a you however, made it clear on Monday: there was now a need to set priorities. “The economy of Running, schools and day-care centres open. Football is secondary,” she said, according to the “image”report.
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